Cedric Stephens | Countering disaster through preparation

Today marks the third day of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, forecasts a 75 per cent chance that this season will be "near or above normal," said a May 31 report in this newspaper.

An average hurricane season, it continued, "produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes".

Important details were missing. The article assumed that the average reader understood distinctions between 'storms' and 'hurricanes'. Also, they were at ease with the term 'major hurricane'. But many persons do not understand these technical terms.

I visited NOAA's website and read its May 24 outlook for this season. Part of the forecast reads: "Forecasters predict a 70 per cent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111mph or higher).

Meteorology is based on science. Details are very important in science. This field of study is about "the atmosphere, atmospheric phenomena, and atmospheric effects on weather". It is a complex subject.

Predictions about hurricanes can affect how members of a society converse and go about planning to minimise the risks of personal injury or property damage. One year ago, I expressed despair about the poor quality of the public discussion in the wake of the May 2017 flood events in "Inadequate risk management has costly outcomes".

I said then that my review of the narrative associated with the 2017-18 Budget presentation did not provide any evidence that considerations relating to the country's risk profile were taken into account in the construction of the Government's economic plan.

Since earthquakes and hurricanes are recurring events, the country's plans should, at the very least, recognise that one or both could occur at any time. Ignoring the social, political, and economic impacts was unwise.

The speed at which the quality of the conversation has improved over the last 12 months is remarkable. At one level, Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica boss Howard Mitchell is calling for "greater strategic planning for quick recovery of business operations in the event of a natural disaster", according to the May 30 issue of this newspaper.

Mitchell opined that "because we are underplanned, the magnitude of the consequences of potential disasters is greater than if we had planned to mitigate those losses". His words, though different from those used in the headline to my article last year, express the same idea.

Minister without portfolio in the Ministry of Finance & Public Service Fayval Williams also raised the bar in the public conversation. She was a guest at the PSOJ meeting. She announced that the Government is in the process of establishing "a policy framework for disaster risk management".

I understand the concept of risk management. However, I wanted to ensure that I didn't misinterpret what she was reported to have said because I was unfamiliar with the two words that policymakers like the minister are so fond of using. I searched to find out what exactly is a policy framework. The Law Dictionary describes it as a "set of guidelines, as well as long-term goals, which are taken in to account when policies are being made. These give the direction in which the firm (organisation or government) is moving".

FOSTER GROWTH

I understood her to be saying that the GOJ recognises the natural disaster risks that tourism-dependent economies like ours faces it loses 2.4 per cent of GDP annually and will be taking steps in the formulation of its policies to recognise these threats instead of relying on handouts from developed countries as we have done in the past. When Hurricane Gilbert wreaked havoc 30 years ago, for example, the country relied on funds from donor countries to finance the recovery efforts.

Opposition Spokesperson on works Mikael Phillips also entered the conversation. He urged Government to implement "a comprehensive disaster-mitigation programme to save the billions lost in infrastructure, agriculture, and housing damage each year ... the best preparation is to keep our roads, gullies, and drains clean".

University of the West Indies academic Dr Leith Dunn is also a participant in the discussion. She is a senior lecturer and head of The Institute for Gender & Development Studies. She argues in her book that "Caribbean men at the margins of society, namely, those who are poor, have disabilities, or who are gay, are among those at highest risk in natural disasters".

On April 8 this year, my column "Insurance as a farming tool" concluded that the time may be ripe for the development of a local risk-transfer capacity to foster growth in the local agricultural sector.

Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, Agriculture & Fisheries J.C. Hutchinson, according to the May 29 issue of the Jamaica Observer, said, "The Government is in the process of developing a crop loss and farm insurance programme." He was making a presentation in the House of Representatives. A concept document outlining the mechanism for the off-budget financing of the programme has been developed. Glory be!

The label 'all talk and no action' is usually applied to persons who often say that they are going to do something but end up doing nothing. It is my hope, given Puerto Rico's experience with Hurricane Maria last year in which over 4,600 persons were reported to have died and our maturity as an independent nation, that we have gone beyond the act of talking about the threats natural disaster pose. We must implement appropriate strategies to reduce the risks.

Finally, why are firms like banks and insurance companies not participating actively in the public discussions? Aren't their experiences as risk takers important to the society?

- Cedric E. Stephens provides independent information and advice about the management of risks and insurance. For free information or counsel, write to: aegis@flowja.com