Orville Taylor | Im-peach or a second bite of the cherry?

The impeachment saga in the United States (US) is a fowl fight and this cockroach is only interested in it not being a foul fight. After all, we have enough issues of our own and, certainly, we do not need to appear to be meddling in the internal affairs of our neighbours.

In fact, much of the basis for the action which led to the Democrat-dominated House of Representatives managing to secure the beginning of this process against the president has stemmed from allegations that a foreign nation has interfered in the electoral process of the US. Other assertions are that the president and his close associates sought to procure the assistance of another state in finding material to use for partisan purposes.

Now, let me make it clear, I am a big stickler for due process and the rule of law. Therefore, as uncomfortably as it might sit with the Democrats and others opposed to President Donald Trump as many are, he has done nothing wrong until he is found to have done so via a transparent and legally supported process, enshrined under their Constitution. Moreover, it is my belief that the hallmark of a democracy is that no one, including a president, is above the law; but he must be given the full privilege and protection that any suspect has.

ON Indicting a sitting president

Interestingly, there is a school of legal thought in the US which seems to suggest that one cannot indict a sitting president on any kind of criminal or civil charge. While we might think this repugnant in a little vulnerable democracy, we must remember that the president is not the equivalent of our prime minister. Nah! The American president is both the governor general and the prime minister all in one. Thus, in the same way that Officer Dibble has to treat the man who lives in King’s House with kid gloves, we must remember that President Trump has no one above him.

Our Prime Minister Andrew Brogad Holness is below the GG and God.

Nonetheless, the American Constitution requires that the decision of the ‘lower house’ must then go before the Senate, which is dominated by the Republicans. Well, bet your bottom dollar that the Grand Old Party is not going to give up its president. Therefore, it will likely not gain any more traction after that.

However, as long as they do what their laws allow them to, I am fine with it. In the country which is sold as the greatest exemplar of democracy and a model for little fledgling states to emulate, it must be extremely careful that neither side in this divisive development disregard their laws.

Whatever the outcome, even if in the unlikely scenario that Trump demits office, the US is still going to be the US and hardly anything will change about our relationship with that country.

Despite the possibility that more elected officials and other prominent Jamaican citizens might have their visas revoked, it is unthinkable for the American government to not want to have a healthy diplomatic relationship with this country. Moreover, there is a dragon in the wings which certainly has no fear of the eagle and the beagle. As I have constantly said, we are a significant part of America’s borders and it cannot afford to have any uncovered crack in its frontiers.

America is still a much-divided country and the Republicans are confident that the ‘onslaught’ against the duly elected president will energise their base and give him another term, and it might just do so. For our purposes, what matters is that the American people elected a president fair and square in 2016, despite him getting a million fewer popular votes than defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

In Jamaica, we have seen at least one election where the losing party gained more popular votes. Still, Hillary lost, plain and simple, and Trump beat her using the rules and the system which all knew were in place before and which was accepted. Those who backed her as well as Hillary’s hecklers must play by the rules and not be sore losers. Impeachment must be driven by clear guidelines and not a desire to have a second bite of the cherry.

Trump did not elect himself. True, there are many things about him which cause many to open their eyes, but the fact is, there is not much about him that surprised most of who voted for him. America voted for whom they wanted, not what the losers desired.

INTERESTING CORRELATIONS

Here, as we get ready for our Christmas and with the odour of election as rancid as a wet dog, we look for hints. In previous columns, I have outlined the correlation between high levels of perceived corruption, poor treatment of the working class, and war with the press as being solid predictors of defeat for incumbent parties in the next free and fair election held in Jamaica since Independence.

But did you know that the incumbent government wins when there is something that energises national pride? And yes, winning Miss World is a perfect correlation.

We might want to point to the euphoria of the Reggae Boyz making history in 1998 and the victory of the People’s National Party (PNP) in 2002. However, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won in 1967 after Carol Joan Crawford opened the gate as Miss World in 1964. A month after Cindy Breakspeare took home the jewelled crown in 1976, Michael Manley was returned for his second term.

P.J. Patterson got his second mandate in 1997 after Lisa Hanna shone brightly in Sun City and … Hold your breaths. Interestingly, America has won the crown only three times. These were 1973, 1990, and 2010. In those years, there is no incumbency correlation, but the Democrats won the presidency. However, more confounding is that the victories in the presidential elections do not correspond to wins in congressional votes.

Anyway, Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanzaa!

- Dr Orville Taylor is head of the Department of Sociology at the UWI, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.