Editorial | States of emergency after the polls

With general election imminent, Prime Minister Andrew Holness is likely to be paying keener attention to the opinions of voters, whose views, on this issue, are tending towards concerns raised by this newspaper.

Jamaicans, an opinion poll has informed the prime minister, are increasingly of the view that the Government’s use of states of public emergency as its core crime-fighting tool is ineffective, and that the PM should drop his plan to have them in place for the medium to long haul. This is an opportunity for the administration, and the security forces, as this newspaper has been suggesting, to engage in a more substantive conversation on the policy.

Eight of these measures are currently in place across seven of the island’s 14 parishes, in nearly half of its 19 police divisions. Except for a short period, in early 2019, when the Government couldn’t muster opposition support for the two-thirds majority to continue extending the declarations in the parishes of St James and parts of St Catherine, a state of public emergency has been in place in Jamaica for two years.

Initially, declaring states of public emergency to stem crime, especially homicides, seemed highly effective. In the northwestern parish of St James, which, in 2017, reported nearly 300 murders, for a homicide rate heading towards 200/100,000, the killings declined 70 per cent the following year. Although there were still more than 1,200 nationally in 2018, that represented a 22 per cent decline, compared to the previous year.

It is not surprising, in the circumstances, that the idea of the state of emergency to push back against violent criminals was hugely popular, with a support in the region of 80 per cent. Indeed, Prime Minister Holness has not only expanded their use, but has said that they could be in place for up to seven years, until Jamaica’s homicide rate is reduced by nearly 50 per cent, and comes close to the regional average of 16 per cent.

What, though, is happening is that murders, even in the police divisions with states of emergency, are again on an uptick – by three per cent in 2019 and more than 10 per cent so far this year. More crucial for the Government is the collapse of the euphoria around the measures and of public support with it.

49% OF J’CANS BELIEVE STATE OF EMERGENCY EFFECTIVE

A recent poll for the RJRGLEANER found that only half (49 per cent) of Jamaicans now believe states of emergency are effective for crime-fighting, against 44 per cent who said no. Only 45 per cent said they should be used into the long term, two per cent fewer than those who were definitively against the idea. These findings must, no doubt, be concentrating the minds of policymakers and the Government’s election strategists.

We do not take lightly the rights and freedoms guaranteed by Jamaica’s constitution and are, therefore, always wary of actions, deliberate or otherwise, which infringe upon them. That is why we have consistently called for full data on, and deep analysis thereof, the application of the states of emergency.

States of emergency allow the security forces, or authorised persons, enhanced powers of search and arrest and limit the right of detained persons to due process. It is expected that they are to be used in only extreme circumstances, which is why the Constitution limits the time – 14 days – they can be imposed without consent from Parliament and why legislators insisted on a special majority for their extension. While it may not be the case in the current circumstances, as the Government has insisted, these powers are open to abuse, usually starting with those in the society who are less able to defend themselves. That usually is the social and economic underclass.

That is why this newspaper has called for periodic publication of disaggregated data, including social profiles, of who has been detained, for how long, and the crime for which they were suspected and charged. This, in part, would help to determine if operations are targeted, rather than broad sweeps to catch who they can. Further, the analyses should also look at whether it is the detentions, or the deterrent effect of that other element of the states of emergency, the heightened presence of police and soldiers in communities, that account for fewer crimes in those areas where the authorities count success.

Perhaps now with the poll findings, we can get this conversation going.