Orville Taylor | Corona mania

It might look like hand sanitiser, but it’s not. Not even a full panel of judges is as serious as times are now. This is my first real pandemic but my grandmother recalls tales of cholera in the 1850s, which were recounted to her as a child. She was born in 1893 and thus would have known old folk who had managed to survive. Around 40,000 Jamaicans or 10 per cent of the population died then.

She related to us that bodies piled up so high and people were dropping like leaves. Running totally scared in sheer panic, citizens carted away the dying along with the dead. As the moribund were being stretchered, occasionally faint voices attempted to protest. I will never forget the eerie words as she told us the echoes of the chants of the ‘clean up teams, “dead or no dead oh, carry him galang.”

This coronavirus – COVID-19 – is lethal both from the infection and the panic it can cause. Similar to when AIDS was discovered, the verbal and other types of abuse have begun as people try to distance themselves from the ‘unclean.’

Still, the numbers are stunning. Since its first discovery just three months ago, it has blossomed out from Wuhan province to the rest of the world with global cases passing 140,000 at the time of writing, with more than 5,000 dead. As impressive as the scale of infection is, the mortality rate is pretty low, with around half of the reported patients having already made a full recovery.

The statistics show a particular pattern. Even at the epicentre in China, only one person under the age of 20 has died and none below 10 years old. The vast majority of persons whom the virus took from us, fall into the older and aged populations. Even within that demographic, the most vulnerable have been those with underlying chronic diseases.

Apart from China, which has been more open with its communication than we have been accustomed to, there are two non-theocratic democracies that have scarily high numbers. These are Italy, at almost 18,000 and South Korea at around 8,000. Joining the list are Spain, France, Germany, and the USA, among others. The figures in countries with high melanin content within their populations are relatively low.

These statistics might mean nothing, because if there is little testing then there is little discovery or reporting and the reverse is true. Also, unless the authorities see symptoms or have probable cause to test, then a large percentage, if not the majority of infected persons, will be undetected for the entire course of the virus.

Nonetheless, poorer countries tend to have shorter life expectancies and thus younger populations. Therefore, Italy with a life expectancy of 83 and South Korea with a 82, Spain and USA in the 80s as well, have lots of gramps. China’s life expectancy is pretty much the same as Jamaica, 76 to our 74, but our (median) average age is 26 years. On the other hand, for China, Spain, South Korea, the USA and UK, around 50 per cent of the population is 40 years old. Italy is at 45.

Jamaica’s over-65 population is only nine per cent. For the US it is 16, the UK 18 and Italy 23. Be not comforted, however, because the few persons who have been picked up on the radar are the tip of the iceberg. I will bet money that scores of Jamaicans have been infected and recovered after ‘a bad flu’ in the past few months. When we dig, we could very well find hundreds here who had, have or do not show symptoms. After all, the main signs are a fever and cough with some tightness in the chest.

No-Touch greetings

Interestingly, we have come up with a range of ‘no touch’ greetings. For me, this is welcome because I do not particularly like shaking of hands, especially from persons without live-in spouses. Yet, China, Japan and South Korea are all countries where bowing is an equivalent to the western handshake. Then again, many Jamaican men claim they do not like that Asian greeting even analogically.

Politically speaking, our prime minister has at least two degrees and has sat many examinations and tests in his relatively short life. None is anywhere as tough as this which he is facing. It is harder than any election he has ever had.

Leading into the discovery of the first case of COVID-19, his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) had a single digit but significant eight-point lead over the opposition People’s National Party (PNP). Importantly, the JLP has stronger support among the younger voters while the PNP has the older fogies. Sick, older voters will be less able to vote.

Yet, history is a hard professor. Since independence, Asian originated novel flus have tended to correlate with incumbent governments in Jamaica losing in the next general election. An Asian flu pandemic the 1968, Hong Kong Flu, caused by the H3N2, and made popular by the ska song by the Ethiopians, was followed by a loss by the JLP in 1972. After an H1N2 was caught in the bud after infecting six Chinese cities, the JLP lost. In 2003 to 2005 several strains of the same virus type saw ‘bird flu’ jump like this battish version to humans. The PNP lost in 2007. By 2009, the well-known H1N1 had taken 18,000 lives and in 2011, the JLP lost. Rounding out 2013 another novel Influenza A virus subtype H10N8 crossed to humans and the JLP smiled in 2016.

Of course, there is no ‘sciance’ to the science and these are purely coincidental but the task in keeping the epidemic in check, public order and a stable economy will test the mettle of this administration. At least the voters think that Health Minister Christopher Tufton is the best performing minister.

However, I am sure now that since we can have no large gatherings, the election is now beyond the horizon.

- Dr Orville Taylor is head of the Department of Sociology at the University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.