Delano Franklyn | The 2020 elections and marginal constituencies

It is safe to say that the September 3, 2020, election outcome will, to a very large extent, be determined by which of the party’s candidates are elected in the marginal seats. In the 2016 elections, 18 of the constituencies were each won by under 1,000 votes (see Table 1).

TABLE 1

Constituencies won by under 1,000 votes in 2016

CONSTITUENCIES WINNERS VOTES LOSERS VOTES MARGIN

Eastern St. Andrew Fayval Williams (J) 7,176 Andre Hylton (P) 7,015 161

East Rural St. Andrew Juliet Holness (J) 10,101 Imani Duncan-Pryce (P) 9,432 669

Western St. Thomas James Robertson (J) 9,568 Marsha Francis (P) 9,154 414

South East St. Mary Winston Green (P) 7,319 Norman Dunn (J) 7,324 5

North Western St. Ann Dayton Campbell (P) 8,461 Othneil Lawrence (J) 8,051 410

South Western St. Ann Zavia Mayne (J) 7,186 Keith Walford (P) 6,849 337

Northern Trelawny Victor Wright (P) 9,611 Dennis Meadows (J) 9,162 429

Southern St. James Derrick Kellier (P) 6,278 Homer Davis (J) 6,212 62

Eastern Hanover Dave Brown (J) 6,386 David McIntosh (P) 6,046 340

North Western St. Elizabeth J. C. Hutchinson (J) 5,896 Daren Powell (P) 4,951 945

South Eastern St. Elizabeth Franklin Witter (J) 9,223 Richard Parchment (P) 9,018 205

North Western Clarendon Richard Azan (P) 8,135 Michael Stern (J) 7,191 944

Northern Clarendon Horace Dalley (P) 7,049 Caswell Pinnock (J) 6,317 732

North Central Clarendon Pearnel Charles Sr. (J) 6,230 Desmond Brennan (P) 5,694 536

South Eastern Clarendon Rudyard Spencer (J) 9,997 Patricia Duncan Sutherland (P) 9,039 958

South Eastern St. Catherine Colin Fagan (P) 7,553 Keith Blake (J) 7,025 528

Eastern St. Catherine Leslie Campbell (J) 5,885 Phyllis Mitchell (P) 5,763 122

Central St. Catherine Alando Terrelonge (J) 6,215 Arnaldo Brown (P) 5,721 494

Of the 18 constituencies in Table 1, the JLP won 11 and the PNP seven. The JLP went on to win the 2016 elections by only one seat and by 3,237 votes nationally.

Table 1 also shows that of the 18 constituencies, 11 were won by less than 500 votes, seven by the JLP, and four by the PNP.

The constituencies of Western St Thomas, with James Robertson as MP for the JLP, and Southern St James, with Derrick Kellier for the PNP as MP, have never really been considered marginal seats as both candidates have won by over 1,000 votes and more in previous elections, but in the last two election cycles, support for the JLP and PNP, in both seats, plummeted significantly.

Not listed in Table 1 is the constituency of West Rural St Andrew, which has always been considered a marginal constituency. However, the JLP’s Juliet Cuthbert Flynn beat the PNP’s Paul Buchanan by 2,098 votes in 2016. However, this does not make it a safe seat.

The 18 constituencies identified in Table 1 can go either way in the upcoming elections, depending on which candidate is perceived as having a better connection and relationship with the voters; is seen as hard working; who the voters believe have their interest at heart and will best represent them; and who will be better able to get out their votes on election day.

DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 2016

It is important to note a few developments since the 2016 elections that have an impact on Table 1 and the upcoming 2020 elections.

First, the by-election that was held in South East St Mary in 2017. In that by-election, the JLP’s Norman Dunn reversed the late Winston Green’s majority of five votes for the PNP when he beat the PNP’s current candidate, Shane Alexis, by 937 votes, thus giving the seat to the JLP.

Second, in the by-election that was held in Eastern Portland in 2019, the JLP’s Ann Marie Vaz overturned the surplus of 2,276 by which the late Lynval Bloomfield won the seat on behalf of the PNP in 2016 to beat the PNP’s Damion Crawford by 319 votes. Eastern Portland now makes it 19 seats won between 2016, to date, by under 1,000 votes.

Third, the number of persons registered to vote has increased by 88,998 since 2016. Mathematically, although the numbers will vary, the increase of voters by 88,998 works out to approximately 1,412 new voters per constituency. This increase in new potential voters in each constituency will have a greater effect on the outcome of the elections in constituencies that were won by under 1,000 votes in 2016.

Fourth, COVID-19 is a threat to our health and our economic survival. It has had a significant impact on the manner in which the election campaign is being conducted. It may also affect the turnout of voters on election day.

CURRENT CANDIDATES

Table 2 lists the names of the current candidates who will be contesting the elections on September 3, 2020, in the 18 constituencies won by under 1,000 votes in 2016.

Table 2

Candidates in 2020 in constituencies won by under 1,000 votes in 2016

CONSTITUENCY PNP JLP

St. Andrew Eastern Venesha Phillips Fayval Williams

St. Andrew East Rural Joan Gordon-Webley Juliet Holness

St. Thomas Western Marsha Francis James Robertson

St. Mary South East Shane Alexis Norman Dunn

St. Ann North Western Dayton Campbell Krystal Lee

St. Ann South Western Valenton Wint Zavia Mayne

Trelawny Northern Victor Wright Tova Hamilton

St. James Southern Walton Small Homer Davis

Hanover Eastern Wavell Hinds Dave Brown

St. Elizabeth North Western Ryan Keating J. C. Hutchinson

St. Elizabeth Eastern Dwaine Spencer Franklin Witter

Clarendon North Western Richard Azan Phillip Henriques

Clarendon Northern Horace Dalley Dwight Sibbles

Clarendon North Central Desmond Brennan Nesta Morgan

Clarendon South Eastern Patricia Duncan Sutherland Pearnel Charles Jr.

St. Catherine South Eastern Colin Fagan Robert Miller

St. Catherine North Eastern Oswest Senior Smith Kerensia Morrison

St. Catherine East Central Raymond Pryce Alando Terrelonge

As shown in Table 2, all 18 constituencies, except for South East St Mary, with Shane Alexis and Norman Dunn, and Western St Thomas, with Marsha Francis and James Robertson, have a new candidate representing either the PNP or the JLP.

For the PNP, Venesha Phillips, Walton Small, Wavell Hinds, Dwaine Spencer, and Ryan Keating are running at the constituency level for the first time.

Joan Gordon-Webley, who is going up against Juliet Holness in West Rural St Andrew, on behalf of the PNP, has contested national elections before in the said constituency but on behalf of the JLP.

Raymond Pryce won the seat in North Eastern St Elizabeth in 2011 but will now be up against Alando Terrelonge in East Central St Catherine.

Valenton Wint has gone up, on more than one occasion, against Audley Shaw in North Eastern Manchester but has now shifted to South Western St Ann to engage Zavia Mayne.

Oswest Senior Smith, who contested for the PNP against the late Shahine Robinson in North East St Ann in 2007, is now in North Eastern St Catherine to face off with Kerensia Morrison.

For the JLP, Tova Hamilton, Nesta Morgan, Pearnel Charles Jr, Dwight Sibbles, Robert Miller, and Krystal Lee are offering themselves at the constituency level for the first time.

Pearnel Charles Jr recently contested a by-election in South Eastern Clarendon, but that election was boycotted by the PNP’s Patricia Duncan Sutherland.

Kerensia Morrison, who was beaten by the PNP’s Natalie Neita Headley in North Central St Catherine in 2016, is now the JLP’s candidate in North Eastern St Catherine.

Phillip Henriques, who ran and lost against Maxine Henry Wilson in South Eastern St Andrew in 2002, now finds himself in North Western Clarendon in a bid to take the seat from Richard Azan. The performance of the candidates in the 18 constituencies identified in Table 2 will determine which party will win the elections on September 3, 2020.

Delano Franklyn is attorney-at-law and former PNP senator and minister of state. Send feedback to delanofranklyn@gmail.com.