Peter Espeut | Choosing between lives and livelihoods

At first, Jamaica’s COVID-19 strategy was to try to keep the virus out of the population, at which we did well. Our first confirmed COVID-19 case was reported on March 10, sixty-nine days after it was first reported in China. Five days later we had only 10 cases, but the Government had already declared Jamaica a Disaster Area, and all schools were closed.

The airports were closed on Day 12, and it was on Day 36 that we reported 100 confirmed cases.

Seven days later, on Day 43, it had doubled to 200 cases, and nine days later, on Day 52, it had doubled again. The first 500 cases took 62 days to emerge, and the second 500 cases took a further 90 days (1,000 cases on Day 152). The rate of infection had slowed, and at that point – August 8 – we were ahead of the game. It was advantage Jamaica.

But 20 days later – before the end of August – the count had reached 2,000 confirmed cases; in 20 days, deaths increased by 68 per cent (from 13 to 19).

And it looks like in one week – between my last column and this one – the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases will have increased by another 1,000; in the five days between last Friday to Wednesday, already nine deaths have been reported. It is advantage COVID-19, the virus is winning right now.

WHAT WENT WRONG?

What went wrong, you may ask?

If we had persisted with the original policy to keep COVID-19 out of Jamaica, we would not be in this position today. But somewhere along the line the policy changed.

During the week of June 1, 2020, Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced that Jamaica’s borders would reopen to international flights to allow the tourism industry to resume; arriving tourists would not be required to be tested. Almost immediately, Minister of Health Christopher Tufton announced that if that new policy was implemented, we could expect an “exponential increase” in coronavirus cases. This was an open sign of dissent from Minister Tufton – an honourable man – against the Cabinet decision to open the floodgates.

That Friday, June 5, 2020, in my column ‘Supporting Christopher Tufton’, I congratulated him for being brave enough to disagree with his Cabinet colleagues in public.

The prime minister relented, and when Jamaica’s airports reopened on June 15, all tourists were required to be tested at the airport. But as the number of daily flights increased, and the numbers of tourists increased, it appears that policy of testing the passengers was not implemented strictly.

What was really abandoned was the policy to ‘keep COVID-19 out’, and it was replaced with ‘We have to learn to live with COVID-19’. The latter was interpreted to mean that we have to take the risk that allowing persons in at the airport will not cause COVID-19 numbers to spiral out of control; the assumption was that if the visitors self-quarantine, and we wear masks, sanitise, and keep our distance, the virus, which is guaranteed to come in, will not spread.

POOR JUDGEMENT

That risk and gamble by the Government showed poor judgement. We must credit Andrew Holness and his Cabinet with enough intelligence to appreciate the widespread indiscipline in the Jamaican society. They must know that there are many Jamaicans who believe that disease and sickness has a spiritual origin, which can be prayed away, or charmed away with bush and guard. Edward Seaga, were he alive, would have told them that many would trek to St Thomas for ‘prayers’ and ‘a bath’ rather than follow the protocols.

To call an election in the midst of a pandemic, without taking precautions against COVID-19 risky, undisciplined political behaviour, is proof of either recklessness or poor judgement.

This week, Minister Tufton publicly announced that the risk analysis calculations by his ministry projected that their policy shift will possibly lead to about one and a half million Jamaicans contracting the virus. And so, as we are shocked and appalled at 1,000 coronavirus cases in one week, the Government is not surprised. It seems that their projections are coming true.

Maybe we will soon have 1,000 positive COVID-19 results per day, but we will have to learn to live with it. That is the trade-off between lives and livelihoods, the economy and public health.

Peter Espeut is an environmentalist and development scientist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.