Carolyn Cooper | Facing facts on COVID-19 in Jamaica

Many of us are living in a fool’s paradise. We seem to assume that the COVID-19 pandemic is not really a threat to us. We do not appear to know that most of the population has not been tested for the virus. And many people who are infected do not show any symptoms. We act as though the number of confirmed cases is an accurate count of the total figure. We also seem to think that the number of people who have died from the virus is really low. So we are enjoying delusional security: “Where ignorance is bliss, ‘tis folly to be wise”.

That doubtful consolation now has the ring of proverbial authority. It actually comes from ‘An Ode On a Distant Prospect Of Eton College’ by Thomas Grey, an 18th century English poet. Reflecting on both his schooldays and life in the adult world, Grey sorrowfully comes to a surprisingly optimistic conclusion:

“To each his suff’rings: all are men,

Condemn’d alike to groan,

The tender for another’s pain

Th’ unfeeling for his own.

Yet ah! why should they know their fate?

Since sorrow never comes too late,

And happiness too swiftly flies.

Thought would destroy their paradise.

No more; where ignorance is bliss

‘Tis folly to be wise.”

Perhaps, Grey’s words were meant to be ironic. All the same, taking his dubious poetic advice at face value, some of us are not allowing thought to destroy our paradise. One of the facts many of us are not bearing in mind is the worrying COVID-19 case fatality rate. That’s the percentage of Jamaicans who have died out of the total infected with the virus. Two Sundays ago, The Gleaner published a report with this headline, ‘COVID kills another Jamaican; 44 new cases recorded’. It gave an alarming statistic: “The number of deaths places the country’s case fatality ratio at 2.3 per cent, which is above the current rate of 2.1 per cent the Johns Hopkins University has calculated for the United States.”

Jamaica is not doing as well as some of us want to believe. The total number of COVID-19 deaths may seem low. But the percentage of infected people who die is not. On December 1, Dr Alverston Bailey, associate professor of Occupational Health and Safety at the University of Technology, presented new statistics in a Radio Jamaica News interview. The facts reported in the November Gleaner article had changed: “Jamaica’s case fatality rate as at yesterday was 2.4 per cent and the case fatality rate for the United States of America was 1.98 per cent. Therefore, our case fatality rate is higher than theirs and, therefore, we must do everything in our power to bring it down so that we can be given a better risk rating by the CDC.”

I am sure Dr Bailey would agree that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rating is not the only factor we should take into account. First of all, we must protect ourselves. More than two out of one hundred infected Jamaicans have died from COVID-19. This number is likely to keep rising if patients who contract the virus cannot be treated effectively; and if those of us who think we have dodged the bullet, so far, do not take the necessary precautions. One of these is wearing masks properly: not on the forehead, chin or neck, but over the nose and mouth.

MANIPULATING DEATH DATA

On December 4, the Ministry of Health and Wellness confirmed that 260 Jamaicans have died from COVID-19. In addition, 31 deaths are under investigation. The Ministry also reported that there have been 36 coincidental deaths. This means that someone who tested positive for the virus actually died from another cause. But could that patient have lived much longer if he or she had not contracted the virus?

The way in which COVID-19 deaths are reported across the world is not standardised. There is room for manipulation. The Our World In Data website cautions that three points must be taken into consideration in discussions on confirmed death figures in all countries:

· “the actual total death toll from COVID-19 is likely to be higher than the number of confirmed deaths – this is due to limited testing and problems in the attribution of the cause of death; the difference between reported confirmed deaths and total deaths varies by country

· how COVID-19 deaths are recorded may differ between countries (e.g., some countries may only count hospital deaths, whilst others have started to include deaths in homes)

· the reported death figures on a given date does [sic] not necessarily show the number of new deaths on that day: this is due to delays in reporting”.

Another fact some of us are not facing is the troubling COVID-19 positivity rate. Up to November 22, approximately nine out of 100 Jamaicans who were tested proved to be positive. The average positivity rate for October was 15 per cent, with a range from six per cent – 36 per cent! With more testing, the positivity rate is likely to increase significantly.

Given this trend, the headline of an October 7 report in THE STAR offered comfort only to a fool: ‘Christmas curfew unlikely – Holness promises relaxed COVID-19 measures if virus numbers dip’. There has been no dip and safety precautions are firmly in place. A fool’s paradise is not an ideal destination. Not for Jamaicans or tourists, for that matter!

- Carolyn Cooper, PhD, is a specialist on culture and development. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and karokupa@gmail.com.