Editorial | Still an uphill fight against COVID

FINDINGS FROM research released this month underline why Jamaicans ought not to be hesitant about being inoculated against COVID-19, why our Government must be aggressive in seeking out supplies of the drug, and why those who have the vaccines should ease their control so others can get it.

Far more people have died in the pandemic than the official figures suggest. Further, the pandemic will not end, and sustained global economic recovery will not be achieved if only the citizens of rich countries have access to vaccines. The formal count has revealed that nearly 165 million people, worldwide, have contracted COVID-19. Deaths from the coronavirus are over three to four million. Up to Monday, 878 of the reported deaths were in Jamaica.

However, an analysis by University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), in the United States, paints a much darker picture of the global impact of COVID-19. Using excess mortality globally for the period between March last year and May 3 this year, and adjusting the figures for a range of other factors, the researchers calculated COVID-19 deaths globally at 6.9 million, or more than double the 3.24 million at which it stood on May 3 when the analyses were completed.

Their estimate for deaths in the United States was over 905,000, or 56 per cent higher than the official figure. In other words, countries around the world were severely undercounting COVID-19 deaths, in some cases by as much as 10 times.

UPDATED ANALYSIS

That, however, is not the end of the story. In updated analysis, the IHME researchers projected approximately 2.5 million more COVID-19 deaths worldwide by the beginning of September, driven by the sharp upward spiral of the disease in India in recent weeks. As many as 44,000 of the additional deaths could take place in the US.

“As terrible as the COVID-19 pandemic appears, this analysis shows that the actual toll is significantly worse,” IHME Director Dr Chris Murray told US media outlets. “Understanding the true number of COVID-19 deaths not only helps us appreciate the magnitude of this global crisis, but also provides valuable information to policymakers developing response-and-recovery plans.”

It was always known, when excess deaths were against pre-pandemic figures, that there was undercounting of COVID-19 deaths, especially in countries with weak healthcare systems. Indeed, some countries, including Russia, at some point upwardly adjusted their COVID-19 death numbers. What this analysis shows is the scale of the problem and the magnitude of the crisis still to be faced.

While there is no indication of an undercounting of COVID-19 deaths (epidemiologists and statisticians have been analysing the data), it does not mean that Jamaica is totally spared of its effects. For the death toll is the ultimate measure of the spread of the virus, and of the success, or lack thereof, in its containment. The current figures speak for themselves and the dangers for the continued spread of the disease, in the absence of a global vaccination effort.

But poor countries have lagged far behind rich ones in their vaccination efforts. Mostly, vaccine supplies are unavailable. Rich countries, with pre-production purchases, control the market for the drugs, notwithstanding the World Health Organization’s (WHO) COVAX Facility to ensure vaccine equity.

VACCINE EQUITY

For instance, under eight per cent of Jamaicans have received a vaccine shot and there is no certainty of when, and from whom, the island will receive its next shipment of the drug after the delivery of perhaps 60,000 doses before the end of this month under the COVAX arrangement. The problem is compounded by the announcement of the Serum Institute of India (SII), a manufacturer of the AstraZeneca vaccine, that it will not resume export of the drug, halted because of the surge of the virus in India, until the end of the year.

We welcome the announcement by the United States of America that it will donate 80 million doses of vaccines, including AstraZeneca, which will not be used in that country, once it is approved as safe for distribution by the US authorities. Jamaica, however, does not know the amount it will get from the American gift. In the circumstances, it is important that our Government continues to scout alternative markets, including China, one of whose vaccines has been approved by the WHO, for the drug.

But the pandemic is a global humanitarian crisis and ought to be treated as such. In this regard, the proposal, backed by the United States, to waive intellectual property rights on vaccines to allow for their global production, should be pursued with rigour, and agreed to, by the World Trade Organization. Failure to do so may rack up profits for big pharma, but at the expense of millions of human lives and broader global recovery.

In the meantime, Jamaica must re-energise its campaign against vaccine hesitancy, while rigorously enforcing the protocols that are known to work against the spread of the virus – wearing masks, maintaining physical distance and regular handwashing.