Editorial | Keep COVID-19 data transparent

It is not clear where Ed Bartlett, the tourism minister, perceives the line to be between transparency and the irresponsible use of information about the COVID-19 pandemic. But at the risk of earning the ire of the minister, we draw attention to what seems to be a new uptick in the positivity rate for the coronavirus, and our concern that in the absence of vigilance and transparency, Jamaica might head blindly in the predicted fourth wave of the disease. In that event, no one will need too much for the facts to be declared. They will be self-revelatory.

In remarks at a function last week, Mr Bartlett suggested that Jamaica might be making too much of the newly emerged, and globally fast-spreading, Omicron variant of COVID-19.

“Yes, we must be transparent,” he said. “But we also must be mindful of how critical the stability and the balance that is required is, and that we’re walking a tightrope.”

He added: “I make the point that when we make certain comments, sometimes unintended consequences can be damaging, because you know if America hears tonight that Jamaica now has Omicron, that level could change.”

The tourism minister did not specifically finger the culprit of this act of irresponsibility, or who was letting the side down. Attention, though, quickly focused on the health minister, Christopher Tufton, who, a day earlier, had confirmed the presence of the Omicron variant. It had been detected in someone from United Kingdom who returned home after travelling to Jamaica.

But Dr Tufton went further. He revealed that of the 1,100-plus tests for COVID-19 at private facilities in the 36 hours before his remarks, seven per cent (76 people) were positive, largely “persons who were short-term travellers to the island and required PCR tests for their return”. Previously, these people might have taken the less accurate antigen tests. So, the obvious question was whether Jamaica has been under-reporting COVID-19 infections among visitors leaving the island.

PART OF THE TOOLKIT

This newspaper appreciates Minister Bartlett’s fear of how the data disclosed by Dr Tufton might be interpreted. We, however, do not share his implied suggestion that the information should be censored. Rather, transparent data, including infection rates for tourists and residents, should be part of the toolkit in managing the pandemic and, more broadly, of the economy, in which tourism, the island’s major earner of foreign exchange, is hugely critical.

The sharp global upsurge in recent weeks in COVID-19 cases is largely due, the experts say, to the advent of the highly transmissible Omicron variant. But luckily, the Omicron variant seems less dangerous than the other dominant, and older, Delta variety. Fewer people are hospitalised with serious illness from Omicron. That, however, is not a settled issue, given the time lag, a fortnight or more, between people contracting the virus and being hospitalised for COVID-19. Further, the vast majority of the people who have contracted the Omicron variant are the unvaccinated. When there are breakthrough cases, infected persons are far less likely to become seriously ill.

There are two significant observations to be made of these facts with respect to Jamaica. The continued low vaccine take-up by Jamaicans is one of them.

Up to the middle of this week, only 19 per cent of Jamaicans were fully vaccinated (having received both doses of a two-dose vaccine, or a shot of a single-dose inoculation). Taking into account people who have had only the first shot of a two-dose vaccine, the number rises to 24 per cent. Additionally, 0.1 per cent of the population had received a booster shot – an additional dose for persons who are already vaccinated. This data is not secret. It is accessible globally.

The science is emphatic that being vaccinated is by far the most effective way to prevent becoming ill with COVID-19, or being less seriously so if you contract the virus. On the basis of the data, Jamaicans have a significant way to go in protecting themselves against a possible foray into the island by the Omicron variant, or a new aggression by the Delta variant.

Our second point relates to this newspaper’s report on Wednesday of the observation by operators of small hotels about the main reasons they have got from guests cancelling bookings since the advent of the Omicron variant. It is not because the variant exists here, or that they feel that the island is about to be overrun by it. Rather, travellers are cautious and want to feel safe with the people to whom they entrust their welfare.

“Every email and every phone call starts with the question, ‘Are your staff vaccinated? The drivers, the masseurs, the entertainers?’” said Sophie Grizzle Roumel of Charela Inn, in Negril, on Jamaica’s west coast.

POSITIVE RESPONSES

It is being able to give positive responses to such questions – which is also good for the safety of tourism workers – that will likely mean most to the growth and stability of the industry. Not censoring, or hiding, data on infected tourists – some of whom may have arrived on the island with COVID-19.

In other words, Jamaicans’ concentration, apart from whatever else it does to protect the industry, must be on lifting the number of tourism workers, and Jamaicans generally, who are inoculated against the virus. There is another compelling reason for re-energising the campaign to get Jamaicans vaccinated.

Over the summer, during the virus’ third wave, the island’s hospitals were close to being overwhelmed. Beds for COVID-19 patients were filled to the gills. Critically ill cases soared. Many people died. The positivity rates for COVID-19, that is, the proportion of people who were diagnosed with the virus against the number tested for the disease, reached well over 30 per cent. Those numbers have fallen back. Recently, they have been in single digits.

Now, there is again cause for concern. The ratios are trending up. On December 21, the positivity rate was 6.8 per cent. A day later it was seven per cent. On December 23, it rose to 11.3, and on Christmas Eve it was 12.9 per cent. On Christmas Day, it was 10.8 per cent, but soared to 25.2 per cent on Boxing Day. The day after it was 14.6 per cent, and 17.9 per cent the next day.

That transparency of this data should lead the Government, and Jamaicans, away from complacency. The situation would probably be worse if the data were hidden.