Norris McDonald | A ‘fenke-fenke’ Budget, a ‘bang-belly’ economy, and a cry for justice

Jamaica’s economy, adjusted for price changes and inflation, declined by -10.10 per cent in 2020. (See table below.) With this drastic decline, we are seeing the reality of the “bang-belly economy” that Audley Shaw warned of in 2013, a cruel reality if Jamaica continues on this International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt-driven political economic path.

And yet, Finance Minister Dr Nigel Clarke has put forward a J$912-billion Budget that he says will create economic growth without any significant investment plans outlined.

With inflation in America at a reported 40-year high, this negative trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. And yet, Dr Clarke says the measly, ‘dege-dege’ 20 per cent increase in capital spending – which is less than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level – will create economic growth. How?

‘FENKE-FENKE’ BUDGET

Dr Clarke’s Budget proudly boasts of J$307 billion being set aside to pay foreign debt. This leaves a measly, ‘dege-dege’ J$514 billion to create the so-called growth he is predicting.

Regarding the food import bill, in 2016 Jamaica spent US$850 million to buy several items, including fruits, vegetables and grains that can be produced here. This drains the national currency reserves. Where is the plan to boost national agricultural production, generate foreign exchange savings, and augment national foreign exchange reserves?

Also, with America saying that interest rates are likely to go up in March, this would have a negative effect on the value of the Jamaican dollar in relation to the US dollar.

Have these factors been considered by Dr Clarke?

How then will he be able to achieve the projected economic growth, against the background of COVID-19 economic stress globally and no massive investment in industrial or agricultural production in Jamaica?

If not, this truly makes it a ‘fenke-fenke’ Budget, in my opinion, with rosy economic growth predictions that are devoid of substance and may well be unachievable.

The most significant thing in Dr Clarke’s 2022-23 Budget is that one out of three dollars is set aside for debt repayment.

And unless Jamaica stops the debt repayment, I do not see how the economy is likely to grow.

I will return to this idea later.

‘BANG-BELLY’ ECONOMY

Meanwhile, data I compiled recently paint a dismal picture of the Government’s economic performance over the past five years.

As we can see from the data here, between 2016 and 2019, there was little or no growth in the Jamaican economy. What is revealed here is that economic growth, if any, was within an extremely narrow range of 1.38 to -10.89 per cent.

This recent data now show that, given this existing trajectory, there is no way Dr Clarke can achieve a projected four per cent economic growth.

Far worse when we place his budgetary predictions against a continuation of the COVID-19 economic stress, rising inflation in America, and negative interest rate changes globally that will have negative feedback on the Jamaican economy.

We then see the massive decline by minus -11.09 per cent (2019-2020), which could partially be attributed to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most certainly, though, in my opinion, it perhaps stems from structural deficiencies of this IMF-induced ‘bang-belly economy’.

“Bang belly” was Mr Shaw’s baby, his ‘economic theory’.

He reportedly said in 2013 that Jamaica had a choice to maintain the belt-tightening budget curbs that strangles growth potentials, or “to create the environment for large-scale investment”.

Now we have Dr Clarke, instead of boosting national investment, raiding the Budget to pay the foreign debt.

“Cock mouth, kill cock” is a wise Jamaican saying.

Meanwhile, serious crimes such as murder haunts our people. Crime is now a drag on economic activity. It has a negative effect on the informal, ‘de sufferas, hustle economy’ where hundreds of thousands of people eke out their daily bread and butter and raise money to take care of their beloved families.

The police report that in 2021 there were 1,463 murders in Jamaica.

The ‘eat a food’ mentality has emerged as an evil fact of Jamaican life. This ‘eat a food’ mentality breeds lawlessness, crime and violence, which is life-threatening to the well-being of all our people.

A CRY FOR JUSTICE

For us as black people, imperialism, slavery, and neo-colonialism have kept us at the bottom of the economic ladder. Debt slavery keeps the poor of the world ‘fighting for survival’, as Bob Marley aptly says.

Worldwide, 854 million people are undernourished. Hunger and malnutrition is killing more people than infectious diseases such as COVID-19. A recent study by Johns Hopkins University reveals that 11 persons globally die from hunger to every seven COVID-19 deaths.

Claude McKay, in his poem The Negro’s Tragedy, expresses this intrinsic pain, this pervasive, poverty-driven, existentialist crisis as follows:

“It is the Negro tragedy I feel,

Which binds me like a heavy iron chain,

It is the Negro’s wounds I want to heal

Because I know the keenness of his pain.”

This “keenness” of poor people’s pain, this “cry of the poor for justice”, ought to become a critical part of the Government’s political and economic planning.

Jamaica may be one of the 73 countries that the World Bank and the IMF say qualifies to have their national debt suspended.

In the final analysis, all stakeholders will be better off. This will generate revenue down the road, to enable the country to once again restart debt repayment sometime in the distant future.

Government can then invest this accrued savings in agriculture, industry, education, health, and rural and urban community development to improve Jamaican poor people’s lives!

Therefore, the foreign debt payment can wait!

That is just ‘the bitta truth!’

Norris McDonald is a respiratory therapist, social researcher, and political analyst. Email feedback columns@gleanerjm.com and miaminorris@yahoo.com.