Norris McDonald | War, money, prices and ‘the new world (dis)-order’

Political events in Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have pushed global oil prices to well over $100 per barrel. As the war heats up, more and more political tensions are rising between Russia, America, and her European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies.

This recent development will now be a new driver of inflationary pressures. The already ‘dung-pressed’ Caribbean consumers are already feeling some of this new economic pain. There is no escaping this reality. In fact, there are 11 to 15 Caribbean countries, including Jamaica, in which the gas price at the pump is well over US$4 per gallon.

As oil prices soar, let’s recall that, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, I called on the Jamaican Government, in The Gleaner, on March 22, 2020 “to buy oil futures at the prevailing price at US$31 per barrel”.

Here is what I wrote:

... “With oil prices dropping to US$31 per barrel, the Government ought to take advantage of the dramatic fall to buy futures contract.

This would be a wise investment from Jamaica’s foreign-exchange reserves. It would generate future savings and potential income from resale of these petroleum futures contract down the road.”

MISMANAGEMENT

So here we are, my friends, with a complacent, unthinking government, in my opinion, facing another global crisis after they made previous missteps, and like ‘Alice in Wonderland’, not sure what’s going on.

While one would perhaps not have expected the Government to anticipate this recent turn of events for a war, they ought to have predicted the potential rise in oil prices. There is no excuse not to have done that. This is clearly an example, in my opinion, of mismanagement.

Economic planning is the responsibility of government. If the Government had planned for a future sharp increase in the price of oil, as I told them, maybe it could help ease some of poor people’s pain.

Also, if they had bought oil at the lower price – ‘the Buffet rule’ and a standard principle of investment – they would not now be forced to deplete the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Meanwhile, as the Russia-Ukraine war rages, consumers are seeing their money jumping out their pockets. People forced to ‘pinchie-covey’ in a situation where their wages are low and value of the Jamaican dollar not worth one American cent!

Cash poverty arises when, no matter how hard you work, you have meagre wages, can’t pay bills, provide for your family, and don’t have ‘ah lickkle suppen lef ova’ for the rainy day.

As oil prices soar and the value of the American dollar keeps rising, the value of the Jamaican dollar is dropping fast like a suicidal ‘cocobe bull frog’ jumping off Mount Diablo to sudden death.

What’s next?

WARS AND HUBRIS

Now, is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine any different than other imperialist wars that we have seen over the last 50 years or so?

I don’t think so.

All wars of conquest are bad. Let’s get that clear. This includes the many American and European wars that have caused mass deaths, rising poverty and refugee crises in many “non-white” countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and in many African countries.

Putting Yugoslavia aside, this is the first time since World War II that there has been a war between “two white European countries”.

But ‘non-white people’ know wars. The post-colonial world has seen many wars. This includes several foreign-sponsored “civil wars”, in the Nigerian Delta, Angola, Congo, and Sudan.

Then there was British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s son, Sir Mark Thatcher, who was convicted by a South African court for his attempts to use mercenaries to invade Guinea-Bissau in 2004 to control the mineral wealth.

Then there is the issue of Rwanda. Quite surprisingly, French President Emmanuel Macron, Monsieur Le Petit Napoleon, recently asked Rwanda to forgive France over their role in the 1994 Rwandan massacre. France, backed by the United Nations, stood by while 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis, were slaughtered “by a genocidal regime”.

America and NATO have invaded, bombed and trampled on the rights of the people of Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria, among others.

Also, it was recently revealed that America was planning to use Argentina and Brazil to invade Venezuela and overthrow the Maduro government.

Now we come to Ukraine, who, egged on by America and the West, took part in the 2003 American-led NATO invasion of Iraq. They had the third-largest military contingent.

I am sure Ukraine never imagined that their country – with the expected NATO military protection – would now be subjected to a Russian invasion.

Talk about hubris!

‘THE NEW WORLD (DIS)-ORDER’

Meanwhile, one downside of the Russia-Ukraine war is that African countries may lose the trade and investment opportunities being planned with Russia.

The ‘2022 African Summit’ was scheduled to be held in Addis Abba, Ethiopia, between October and November. But now with Russia under an international travel ban and numerous sanctions, this conference may be cancelled. Bilateral trade between Africa and Russia is estimated to be US$20 billion and has been increasing.

My friends, Michael Manley and Mia Mottley are right.

The later former Jamaican Prime Minister Michael Manley called upon the world to work together and build a true ‘new international economic order’. This was to be based on human rights, dignity, justice, friendship, mutual respect, equality of nations and people as the way to achieve shared prosperity.

Now, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley is also raising her voice, calling on the world to wake up and come together for the overall common good of humanity.

Imperialism will never listen to such global calls for justice. They appear unwilling to yield one inch of their political and economic dominance.

So here we are, in this ‘dawg-nyam-dawg’ ‘new world international (dis)-order’ in which wars, and the inhumane suffering they bring, appear to be a fact of life!

That is just ‘the bitta truth!’

Norris McDonald is a respiratory therapist, social researcher, and political analyst. Email feedback columns@gleanerjm.com and miaminorris@yahoo.com