Elizabeth Morgan | OACPS and WTO: In challenging times

There remains a lot to process this week in international relations. The Summit of the Americas in the USA and the Council Meeting of the Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS), held in Brussels, Belgium, concluded last week.

The 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is now in progress, having started on Sunday, June 12, and will end on Wednesday, June 15. It is being held in the shadow of ‘polycrises’ – a continuing COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, looming food shortage, and climate change. I will focus on the OACPS and WTO.

OACPS COUNCIL MEETING – REASONS FOR CONCERN

From my reading about the OACPS Council Meeting, June 7-8, it is evident that there is no progress on the signing of the new OACPS/EU Post-Cotonou Agreement since my articles of November 2021 and April 2022. The problem with the signing seems to be on the side of the European Union (EU) and involves its member, Hungary, which is continuing to object to the provisions on migration. Hungary is holding to its view that people, especially non-Europeans, must be encouraged to stay in their homelands.

The Hungarian Foreign Minister has called the EU migration policy ‘misguided’ and has described the Post-Cotonou Agreement as a new ‘madness’, “essentially a migration agreement, the little sister of the UN migration pact”, and stating that Hungary will not agree to sign it. In April, Prime Minister Victor Orbán was re-elected in Hungary for a fourth consecutive term. Hungary’s position on migration is not likely to change soon.

The existing Cotonou Partnership Agreement, which should have expired in 2020, has now been further extended for one year, into 2023, as the EU seeks to resolve its internal difficulties. It requires all EU members to approve a treaty for signature. It is not now clear when the OACPS/EU Post-Cotonou Agreement will be signed. What could this mean for the OACPS-EU partnership?

It is my impression that there are also challenges related to development support at the regional level. In addition, the five-year review of the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) is still not complete.

OACPS AT WTO

At WTO MC12, Jamaica is the coordinator of the OACPS group. Jamaica’s delegation is being led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator Kamina Johnson Smith. Minister Johnson Smith participated in an OACPS preparatory meeting for MC12 on May 31.

It has become a tradition that WTO ministerial meetings are stressors, and it is evident that this tradition will be maintained at MC12.

Referring to my article from last week on MC12, there are some issues on which it could be difficult to achieve consensus. These include agriculture, fisheries subsidies, response to the pandemic, the e-commerce moratorium, and WTO reform, which are also important to OACPS members.

India, a member of the Group of 33, an alliance of developing countries on agriculture, seems to have gone to MC12 in a militant mood to do battle on the issues in its strategic interest. India is pushing for MC12 to take a people-first approach – the rich must show they care about the poor. The G33 and the OACPS collaborate on common agriculture issues.

The OACPS also collaborates with the Africa Group and the Group of Least Developed Countries to form a developing-country alliance of the G90 on development issues (for example, special and differential treatment).

China, a major player, wants to see economic globalization advanced. This may not be a direction now favourable to other members. Other players include developing countries in Latin America and Asia, and the developed countries, EU, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and USA. The CAIRNS Group of agricultural producers includes both developing and developed countries with shared agricultural interests; for example, reducing subsidies. There could even be an emerging alliance of those particularly concerned about the impact of sanctions on Russia. This is a situation of many converging and diverging interests, but can consensus be achieved on specific issues?

I am noting that, with its trade preferences (Most Favoured Nation status) suspended by some members since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is threatening to withdraw from the WTO. Some members would not mind.

The mettle of ministerial negotiators is likely to be fully tested at MC12. We will see whether anything meaningful emerges for the OACPS and other developing countries, as MC12 is expected to wrap up today.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.