Alfred Dawes | The canary in a coal mine

A few years ago, my father predicted that very soon we would see hardened criminals hijacking food trucks and other transport vehicles. This he believed was the inevitable result of the influx of guns into the island and the luxurious scamming lifestyle becoming the norm for hardened criminals. As the profits out of scamming would inevitably dry up with an international crackdown, something had to take its place. He believed the criminals would be bold and armed enough to begin hijacking freight carriers. Every son loves to gloat whenever fathers are proven wrong. This time I had to be respectful as he was only wrong in how bold these criminals would be. He expected no more than freight robberies; never ATMs and armoured vehicles. Unfortunately for our country, he missed the mark.

That we have reached a state in our country where criminals feel confident enough to repeatedly attack armoured vehicles is unprecedented. As the old man predicted, something had to take the place of scamming, which is past its heyday. The drug trade’s decline following September 11, 2012 created the vacuum in criminal earnings that resulted in the rise of scamming. As that low risk high reward activity was embraced by the parts of the business world and some politicians, its tentacles ensnared any willing youth who could work a lead list and use a banger phone. Anthems to “chopping” proliferated and are still wildly popular in dancehall even as the profits from scamming have declined.

PEEK INTO EARNINGS

For those who are unacquainted with the degree of wealth of some scammers, it is useful to get a peek into their earnings. To simply collect a cash transfer and deliver it to a scammer, one could earn anywhere from $50,000 to $100,000. Compare that to the salary of a tourism or call centre worker in the west of the island where scamming was concentrated. Teenagers could earn thousands of US dollars in a day, equivalent to a lifetime of work as a bike taxi rider or common labourer. The luxury cars, champagne car washing, top shelf liquor, burning of money for sport, and of course the girls on top of girls attracted more and more to the game. Some were directly involved in the actual cold calling, but there was an entire extremely wealthy microeconomy that proliferated around scamming that allegedly attracted from call centre managers to security personnel.

As with any criminal enterprise, there are ups and downs. Jamaica came on the radar of US officials and soon the extradition requests and arrests came fast and furious. Public education and a lower quality of callers contributed to the decline of scamming. Although it is still highly active today, it is not as lucrative and widespread as before. For those who were used to that lifestyle, something had to take its place. Hijackings, increased robberies, extortion and kidnappings are all likely contenders. The firepower in the hands of the criminals make any of them attractive options. They just decide to get straight to the point and go directly where the money was, ATMs and armoured vehicles. This does not guarantee for a moment that that is where their focus will remain. We are all vulnerable to kidnappings and all it takes is for a few successful, well-publicised ransom payments for the copycats to create a new industry.

Students of physics are familiar with the term, nature abhors a vacuum. This is relevant beyond the realms of science and into social science and economics. The illegal overfishing of Somali waters by foreign commercial vessels driving local fisherfolk out of business gave rise to piracy in the Horn of Africa. The development of the piracy industry was facilitated by so-called mainstream businesses and individuals who saw the massive profits to be earned from the fishermen in canoes commandeering oil tankers. The origin story and the role of the establishment is seldom discussed in the stories covering these “abhorrent modern-day pirates”.

FILL CRIMINAL VACUUMS

Our own desire to fill criminal vacuums goes back for decades where the lack of opportunity for social advancement created the demand for alternate pathways to wealth. The development of the island as a major transshipment hub for cocaine and locally produced marijuana was inevitable given our geographic location in the Caribbean. As the narcodollars poured into Jamaica and other islands, it created a new class of entrepreneurs born out of legitimised profits. They were more mature and forward thinking than the scammers who used their profits to stockpile arsenals. The drug trade demanded more risk taking and sophisticated planning. Not so with scamming. Only one local criminal enterprise could truly be called easy money. Now with guns galore and the baseline expectation of easy money, they are turned on us rather than faceless foreign victims. With our security apparatus in shambles and anaemic economic conditions enticing willing participants to any affiliate ecosystem that may arise in this vacuum, only God knows what other crime monster is currently breaking out of its shell.

Whatever befalls us, it is not the local-victimless target of the narco trade or the lottery scam, it will be us hard-working Jamaicans who only want to enjoy our right to life. The holdups of armoured vehicle is not the rock bottom of lawlessness, it is merely the canary in a coal mine. There is much worse to come if we don’t wake up to our reality now.

- Dr Alfred Dawes is a fellow of the American College of Surgeons, and CEO of Windsor Wellness Centre. Follow him on Twitter @dr_aldawes. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and alfred.dawes@gmail.com