Editorial | BPOs on a larger canvas

It is heartening that there is a counter-argument that Jamaica’s business process outsourcing (BPO) sector will not only survive the advance of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, but thrive in it.

The only thing is that the optimism appears, thus far, to rest primarily on declarations and expectations, rather than a clearly defined path forward. That route, hopefully, will become obvious presently. There is little time to tarry.

But a conversation on how to support and/or save BPOs, in the face of the fast advance of technology, can’t be only about that sector. There must be a broader debate of how to build on macroeconomic stability achieved over the past dozen years to transform Jamaica from a low-wage, low-technology, low-middle-income country, to one on a clear path of sustainable development and growth, whose economy remains competitive even as wages rise.

The use of AI technologies and machine-learning systems in business, often as replacement for tedious, repetitive functions, isn’t novel or new. However, the rapid advance in the capabilities of these technologies in recent years – especially last November’s launch of the sophisticated chatbot, ChatGPT – has concentrated minds globally.

ChatGPT (chat generative pre-trained transformer) has gained attention for its ability to sift information and formulate ideas with a style and polish that is difficult to differentiate from those of humans. It and other AI technologies are only expected to get better, placing in jeopardy some human functions and, therefore, many of today’s jobs. Not surprisingly, some players in Jamaica’s BPO, composed mainly of contact (call) centres at the lower end of the industry’s spectrum, are concerned.

In Jamaica, BPOs employ an estimated 55,000 people and last year generated, according to government estimates, US$900 million. That would make it the island’s third largest source of foreign exchange, after tourism and remittances. Similarly, it is the third largest employer, behind agriculture and the government.

LOSE FIFTH OF JOBS

Last week, Anand Biradar, president of Global Services Association of Jamaica (GSAJ), which represents the industry, projected that over the next two years it could lose up to a fifth of its jobs, around 11,000 posts. Matthew Stone, a doctoral student and researcher in AI at The University of West Indies, Mona, believed that the decline could be far more catastrophic, the loss of 70 per cent of the industry’s jobs in five years.

These predictions, obviously, will materialise, if Jamaica doesn’t have an effective strategy with which to fight back. In this regard, some of Mr Biradar’s constituents give him short shrift.

“The fear surrounding AI is unfounded as soon as you learn that it is simply another tool, not meant to replace human work, but to augment it,” said Yoni Epstein, the principal and CEO of Itel/Outsourcing Management Ltd, a BPO firm with operations in Jamaica and the eastern Caribbean. “It frees agents from repetitive work so they can focus on higher-value tasks, such as problem-solving or building strong customer relationships.”

Gloria Henry, Mr Biradar’s immediate predecessor as president of GSAJ, said that Jamaica’s BPOs are preparing for the growth of AI and “the opportunities that we can exploit”. These issues will be among the topics at a BPO conference next month.

A critical question to be resolved, however, is whether Jamaica’s BPOs, which have enjoyed a strong spurt of growth, will in the near to medium future have quality staff, in sufficient volume, to lift up the food chain, and beyond what Don Robotham, in a recent series of articles in this newspaper, characterised as “low-value added, extractive raw materials and raw services activities”.

DIFFICULTY FINDING GOOD STAFF

Indeed, the industry has in the past complained of difficulty finding good staff and retaining them.

“It’s easier now to get persons to apply, but when they apply, we have to continue to sift through several applications to find the right fit,” Ms Henry lamented a year ago when she was still GSAJ’s president.

This is a problem facing not only the BPO sector; it’s felt across the economy, exacerbated by Jamaica’s generally poor education outcomes, especially in STEM subjects and the island’s insufficiency of vocational education and skills training. Indeed, 70 per cent of Jamaicans have no formal training for the jobs they do.

Yet, more than a year and a half since its release there has been no robust, government-led debate on the findings of the Orlando Patterson Commission on the reform of education, which was commissioned by the administration. But there is a committee charged, supposedly, with implementing its recommendations.

Nor is there a national conversation on the integration of education and an industrial policy, writ large, or on the respective roles of the public and private sectors in the formulation of such a policy. To the extent that those discussions are happening, it is in silos.

Clearly, a lot needs to change.