Byron Blake | What are Maldives and Maui telling us?

It has long been held that islands will be the first and most seriously impacted by the intensification of climate change, or more broadly natural hazards arising from our increasingly reckless interaction with nature. One of the most nefarious reactions to that statement of “fact” is that the large, rich, and powerful countries, those most responsible for the environmental degradation, decided that they did not need mitigative action.

Instead, they enhanced their destructive production systems, increased their rate of exploitation, and advertised their opulent lifestyles. One undeniable result is the record annual increases in global temperatures, the early breach of the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, and the observed catastrophic events across the globe. In terms of demonstrable catastrophic impacts on small islands, the Canaries in the Climate Change mine, we recall the effects of the 2004 Asian tsunami on Maldives, in particular Malé, and the 2023 wildfires (still in progress) in Maui County, in Hawaii.

MALÉ AND MAUI

On December 26, 2004, a tsunami triggered by a massive earthquake off the coast of Indonesia flooded two-thirds of Malé, killed 82, and leaving 26 missing. The waves moving at 700 kilometres per hour, islanders with nowhere to hide were “sitting ducks”. The resulting economic losses were estimated at US$470 million or 62 per cent of GDP. Houses, tourist resorts, fishing boats and fishing equipment, schools, and health facilities were destroyed or significantly damaged.

The cost of reconstruction was estimated at US$375 million or half of one year’s total production. Many spiritual and burial sites, cultural heritage sites, and places of worship have disappeared forever. No economic value can be imputed to these.

Malé was only one of 39 islands of the Republic of the Maldives significantly impacted, with 14 destroyed and rendered uninhabitable. So, even though Malé’s or even the Maldives’ total death and economic loss were small in the context of a tsunami that took over 225,000 souls and engendered economic losses of just under US$10 billion, the true impact was incomparable. The post-event stress would also be matchable.

MAUI

In the early morning of August 8, fires, driven by one-mile-per-minute winds associated with Hurricane Dora 700 miles south, ripped through the Capital Lahaina, west Maui, with its 12,000 population. They had little chance and survivors watched the raging flames and black smoke anxiously, from the raging sea or far spaces. At the time of President Joe Biden’s visit on August 21, 114 were confirmed dead, 850 were still missing, 4,000 were in shelters, and some 86 per cent of the houses were damaged. If we assume that just 50 per cent of the missing perished that would move the death toll to over 560, which would make it only second to the Peshtigo fires, Wisconsin, in 1871 in the United States.

Maui Island, the largest of the four islands comprising Maui County, had additional adverse impact as tourist travel had to be curtailed and limited to emergency personnel. Tourism, construction, commerce, and government services came to a standstill. Agriculture was already suffering from the islandwide climate change-induced drought. The overall economic impact has been estimated at US$7.0 billion. The reconstruction cost could exceed US$5.0 billion.

These costs do not include the priceless heritage, and cultural, religious, and ancestral rites lost forever.

LESSONS FROM THE CANARIES

A careful look at the events in Malé and Maui indicates four issues that should give all cause for pause. First, while the absolute death and economic losses suffered in Malé or even Maldives, and Maui or the Hawaii cannot be compared with the magnitude of the losses of Indonesia in the tsunami or the 2023 wildfires in Canada, the relative impact can be equal or greater.

At the same time, the post-event stress on survivors is much greater because each survivor on the small island is likely to be a close relative or friend of, or would know, many who perished. These people should not be ignored as the memory of the event recedes or the costs of reconstruction in the large economies increase.

Second, climate-related hazards can obliterate small indigenous populations or even their civilisation in a matter of hours. There are often few natural or adaptative defences left as greed and shortsightedness have led to practices that weaken natural buffers, and the promised resources for adaptation have not been forthcoming.

Third, this permanent displacement and migration level is difficult to manage on small islands. It has spawned a major industry with many hope-to-be migrants dying at sea. Islanders, especially from tiny islands, have no way of migrating illegally except by sea. This forced or unplanned migration is already a top global problem, especially for the developed countries of the North. This begs the questions: How many more will die at sea? What other measures will the North take?

A fourth insidious but emerging issue is that an increasing number of islanders cannot afford to live independently on their beloved island after reconstruction either because of the cost of reconstruction or competition from wealthy non-islanders. Internal migration in Maldives from Atolls to Malé and other demands for land in the capital have created a severe shortage of houses. In 2019, 38 per cent of the population in Malé lived in rental homes, and the percentage is projected to rise. In Maui, there are already reports of “sharks” trying to buy property in burnt-out areas. Historically, these islanders lived independently on tribal or family-owned lands. This increased cost or unavailability of housing will add to the pressure on outward migration and the anxiety in the North.

We end with a question for every person, business, organisation, and government on the globe: “Is the maintenance of the over-consumptive lifestyle, and economic wealth differentiation of the few, worth the inconvenience and suffering of us all, and of nature, we have experienced over the last five years?”

Ambassador Byron Blake is the Jamaica’s former deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, CARICOM and G77 and China Lead Negotiator. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com