Byron Blake | Whither small islands: the ship has sailed

May 2024 marks 30 years after the First Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States held in Barbados from April 25 to May 6, 1994.

That Barbados Conference, organised in large part by the small islands themselves, especially those in the Caribbean, was pursuant to a decision of the pathbreaking United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in RIO, Brazil in 1992. The RIO Conference spotlighted Climate Change, specifically the persistent warming caused by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the post-industrial period and the adverse implications for sustained global development. It made a clarion call for the Industrialised (developed) Countries to take mitigating action to change production and consumption patterns.

The Barbados Conference spotlighted the implications of Climate Change and Global Warming for Small Island Developing States, particularly the warming of the seas and the atmosphere in its Barbados Plan of Action (BPOA). These islands are surrounded by water and are mainly located in the tropics. They are at risk of inundation. They are targets for more frequent and devastating hurricanes, tropical storms, floods, and wildfires – acts as nature seeks to rebalance from average ambient temperatures approaching 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The outcome document was therefore more specific than the RIO Plan. Important agreements included:

• The commitment to containing emissions at a level that would maintain average annual temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

• The industrialised countries would target their greenhouse gas emissions to peak and begin to reduce by the end of the century.

• The industrialised countries would provide adequate financial resources for adaptation and mitigation, and, for access to technology to assist developing countries in taking the increasingly necessary adaptation and mitigation actions.

The BPOA was reviewed at the Second SIDS Conference in Mauritius in January 2005. It was revealed that the industrialised countries had failed to meet their commitments and that the global situation concerning GHG emissions had worsened dramatically. The outcome document, The Mauritius Strategy for the Further Implementation of the BPOA and address New and Emerging Challenges recognised both the failure and the danger.

DIRECT LINE

There was a direct line from Rio through Barbados to Mauritius, and the commitments and promises made in RIO and Barbados were not kept. This was visible for all to see and feel. The scientific evidence was subsequently outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) released in 2007. That report sounded the alarm and stated what the industrialised countries had to do without delay. The international community met in Bali, Indonesia, in December 2007, considered the report, and agreed that the industrialised countries would negotiate among themselves, but in its presence, a plan to be accepted in Copenhagen, Denmark, at the end of 2009.

The industrialised countries decided to change the narrative instead of acting. They persuaded the international community:

• In Copenhagen to change the benchmark from “below 1.5 degrees Celsius” to “under 2.0 degrees Celsius”; and

• In RIO, Brazil, in 2012 to discontinue the five and 10 yearly review of the Rio Plan of Action and to develop a new framework, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to replace the MDGs to be achieved in 2030.

The third SIDS Conference was held in Samoa in 2014. The Outcome Document was titled, “The Samoa Pathway – Providing a Renewed Potential Commitment to address the Special Needs and Vulnerabilities of SIDS”. The focus shifted ever so slightly, from “Climate Change, Sustainable Development ...” to “Climate Change, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ...”

SIDS Conference 4 was held in Antigua and Barbuda, less than one hour flying time from Barbados, when this article was written. We do not yet have the outcome for analysis. However, we are struck, among other things, by:

• The theme “Antigua and Barbuda Charting the Course Toward Resilient Prosperity” and the focus is “Antigua and Barbuda Agenda for Small Island Developing Countries: A Renewed Declaration for Resistant Prosperity”.

• The absence of reference to the BPOA or to Sustainable Development. Two of the four primary speakers in the grand Opening Session mentioned Barbados, but not in terms of the BPOA, and that there was no effort to draw a line from Barbados to Antigua and Barbuda.

• The absence of reference to the fact that the last seven years have been, successively, the hottest on record, with average annual temperatures expected to be consistently above 1.5 degrees Celsius before 2030.

• The absence of reference to the failure of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Dubai in 2023 to agree to the phase-out of fossil fuels, the major contributor to the heating of the atmosphere.

The ship to contain ambient temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius sailed even before Dubai. The combination of the 1.5 degrees Celsius breach and the failure to agree to the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is existential for SIDS. It prompts the question, “Whither SIDS?” A SIDS Conference that does not confront these issues will be a failure. Humans, and many other species of animals and plants, do not survive in hot water. They are not purified by fire. And, they do not prosper in darkness.

We will comment further when we see the outcome document.

Byron Blake is former Jamaica deputy permanent representative to the United Nations and former assistant secretary general of the Caribbean Community. Send feedback to ambassadorblake@gmail.com and columns@gleanerjm.com