Elizabeth Morgan | Significant elections – interesting times

In my article of January 3 on the 2024 trade and economic agenda, I pointed to the many general/presidential elections scheduled for this year around the globe, which could have far-reaching implications for addressing the many global crises, depending on their outcomes. We should be paying attention to these elections. Currently, elections pending or recently ended are in Mexico, South Africa, India, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). The unexpected election in this group is that in the UK which was called suddenly by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. This general election was not officially due until 2025. The US elections are to be held in November, but the campaign is in progress.

There are other elections to note which include the European Union (EU) having Parliamentary elections, June 6-9. Presidential elections are to be held in Iran on June 28, due to the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash in May, and in Venezuela on July 28. As usual, there are concerns about Venezuela’s election as an opposition candidate was banned and EU observers excluded. Don’t be surprised if there are also elections in Israel as well. Gaza is proving problematic all round.

In the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic held general elections on May 19 and the incumbent president, Luis Abinader, was returned to office. Here, too, the focus is on bringing stability to Haiti, so that elections can be held there at some point.

Looking further at some of these elections.

Mexico – With elections held on Sunday, June 2, Mexicans in a landslide, made history by electing the first woman to become their 66th president. Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, is a member of the left-wing Moreno Party, which was founded by the outgoing president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Sheinbaum is to assume office in October. It is expected that her policies will not differ much from those of Obrador. Jamaica established diplomatic relations with Mexico in 1966 and Mexico is an important partner for Jamaica and CARICOM in Latin America.

South Africa – Elections were held on May 29 with the pollsters forecasting that the African National Congress (ANC), the party of Nelson Mandela, would not do as well as in previous years. The ANC dominated the Parliament (National Assembly) for 30 years and held the presidency with Cyril Ramaphosa being the incumbent. There was great hope for South Africa as an African economic and political power. This hope has not been realised though South Africa is a member of the G20 and the BRICS (alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, plus). The election results have shown disappointment as the majority of South Africans face acute economic and social difficulties. The ANC lost its majority in the assembly, but still is the largest party making it possible to form a governing coalition with one or two other parties. The Democratic Alliance, a centrist party led by John Steenhuisen, finished second in the polls. The left-wing uMkhonto we Sizwe (Mk) Party led by former ANC president, Jacob Zuma, finished third, it seems.

Coalition negotiations have started. They could be very difficult given differences in policy positions among the parties and the presence of the controversial Zuma. It also seems that there are questions about whether Ramaphosa can remain leader of the ANC and thus remain president of South Africa. Jamaica and CARICOM retain a strong relationship with South Africa.

India – The elections for India’s lower House of Representatives, known as the Lok Sabha, started on April 19 and concluded on June 1. India has the longest electoral process in the world. As counting progressed on June 4, it was reported that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were not doing as well as originally expected and would lose its majority in a similar fashion as the ANC in South Africa. The BJP would need to form a coalition to govern. Modi has been in office since 2014 and is expected to remain PM for an unprecedented third term. There have been problems as PM Modi was accused of being an autocrat, bringing religion into politics by promoting right wing Hinduism, and concern about high unemployment, even though the country is rising as a global economic power. The opposition National Congress Party had dismissed the exit polls showing a landslide for the BJP. There were also questions about a threat to India’s democratic processes.

India, a key member of the BRICS, has been seeking to further strengthen relations with CARICOM countries.

United Kingdom – On May 22, Rishi Sunak, the Conservative British prime minister, after meeting with King Charles III, announced that general elections would be held on July 4. Parliament was dissolved and election campaigning began. The Conservative Party has been in power since 2010 when David Cameron became prime minister in a coalition with the Liberal-Democratic Party. Cameron won a majority in 2015. Britain, some may now argue, unnecessarily entered into a referendum to end its membership of the European Union (EU), known as Brexit. Cameron lost in this referendum when a majority in the UK voted to leave the EU. Since Brexit, and with the COVID pandemic, British politics and economics have been in a period of turbulence. Following the resignation of David Cameron, there have been four other Conservative prime ministers – Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and, currently, Rishi Sunak. Boris Johnson did win the 2019 elections. Dissatisfaction among the British electorate has grown and especially as the economic situation became more difficult with the war in Ukraine. Britain’s economy contracted and is officially in recession. There is also concern about the continuing inflow of immigrants. Polls are showing that the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is likely to have a big win.

The United Kingdom remains an important trade and development partner for Jamaica and CARICOM countries regardless of debates taking place related to their historical colonial relationship. Note that Jamaica becoming a republic does not change its diplomatic, political, and economic relationship with the UK. We should keep tuned in to this election campaign.

United States – A very important election campaign to follow closely is that unfolding in the US, where for the first time since the 1890s, when Grover Cleveland was re-elected, a former president, Donald Trump (Republican), is running to be re-elected against the incumbent President Joe Biden (Democrat). This election campaign is getting more bizarre by the minute and exposing weaknesses in the US governance system. Donald Trump was recently found guilty by a jury on thirty-four felony changes. This was about the fifth court case in which Trump or his business enterprise have been found guilty. Despite all this, according to media houses and pollsters, it will be a very close presidential race on November 5. Some polls are predicting that Trump could win. It is being reported that countries looking on, especially US allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are very worried and beginning to strategise. If Donald Trump is re-elected with criminal convictions, it should not be only NATO members worrying about this. The US does not issue visas to people with criminal convictions and would be highly unlikely to entertain a foreign Head of State or Government with criminal convictions, no matter how minor.

We are, indeed, in interesting times.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com