Peter Espeut | Fighting for their political lives

The results of the local government elections last February confirmed the findings of opinion polls that the political fortunes of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) had fallen and were falling. They lost the popular vote, and were it a general election (I know the dynamic would have been different, they would have lost 16) seats to end up with the slimmest of parliamentary majorities – only one seat (see my column of March 8).

Of the 32 seats the JLP would have hypothetically won on that day, five would have been retained by a margin of less than 250 votes (see my column of March 22, for the details). Should the swing away from the JLP deepen (predicted by the poll trends), the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) would likely be winning at least 36 seats to the JLP’s 27, to govern with at least an eight-seat majority. And that is just a projection from last February’s local elections.

What this should have done is to galvanize the JLP to parade its achievements and downplay its failures and deficiencies – basically a PR blitz – to try to arrest the decline, and turn it around. Every new bus, every new garbage truck, every new public WiFi hotspot, would be a big campaign event.

TALL ORDER

It was always going to be a tall order; the Jamaican electorate would easily see through that!

The JLP were in the middle of that strategy when along came Hurricane Beryl. The government knew that if the recovery effort and the relief effort was stellar, its image as the party of performance – management and efficiency – would be enhanced, and would provide the perfect opportunity to call the general election (riding on the euphoria from our expected Olympic achievements).

Well the Olympics did not work out as expected, and the slow and painful recovery from Hurricane Beryl in the south central – both in terms of the lag in the return of electrical power and the damage to crops in the breadbasket of Jamaica – amounts to a political crisis.

Add to that: food prices are going up; violent crime is hitting the headlines (even as we are told that crime is decreasing); schools are scheduled to reopen in two weeks, with many in a state of disrepair; and then the light and power company sends increased bills to households, many of which had no power at all for days and weeks.

It is a politically toxic climate, not suited to a general election victory for the incumbents.

Wednesday’s editorial in this newspaper was spot on: “Light and Power Theatre” the editor called it. The government is fighting for its political life, and Daryl Vaz has been cast as Rambo, Sir Galahad and Superman rolled into one. Wednesday’s editorial states, inter alia:

“It is against this backdrop that Minister Vaz has maintained an almost daily harangue of the light and power company, in which the Government has 19 per cent stake, for its missed restoration deadlines and its ostensible insensitivity to consumers. The visage of Mr Vaz is of the champion of consumers, which is likely to have deflected what might otherwise have been public anger against the Government”.

MUST BE CAREFUL

Minister Vaz must be careful that he does not come off looking like Don Quixote.

Readers may remember that the light and power company used to be government-owned. It was privatized because the prevailing ideology was that government should not own a company that could be owned by the private sector, and in any case, government was notoriously bad at management; in the end, we were told, consumers would get a better deal.

The license the power company holds – given by the government – was to contain provisions to protect the public from rapacious profiteering for which monopolies are famous. Both the JLP and the PNP have presided over these arrangements, which have been found wanting.

The government has established a regulator to protect the interests of the country, but its mandate and its powers are limited to those contained in legislation passed in Gordon House by the PNP and the JLP.

Daryl Vaz – the portfolio minister – complains that he has bark and no bite. His powers – dentures (false teeth) and all – are those given him by the parliament. Who is to blame for that?

Now that parliamentarians have their 200+ percent salary increase in their wallets, I hope they will do a better job of legislating and license preparation.

By the way: how much has the privatised power company over the years contributed to Jamaica’s political parties? They seem to hold the handle while the public holds the blade.

Ultimately, the power company exists to make a profit for its shareholders, and will recover its costs in ways permitted by the law, and their license. I have earlier referred to the futile if fabulous commands of King Canute.

What else can the ruling party do as the clock ticks towards the next general election? Expect more bluster, noise and fury!

In the mean time the Integrity Commission continues to investigate illicit enrichment, the conversion of prime agricultural land into concrete proceeds apace, and the ads in the media tell us that the government is pushing us all down the “Road to Republic” – really just a new monarchy.

What will the next opinion polls say?

Peter Espeut is a sociologist and development scientist. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com