Peter Espeut | Political gamesmanship

When I wrote last week, Nigel Clarke had just announced his intention to resign his positions in Jamaica to take up a job in Washington, DC. This week Marsha Smith resigned with immediately effect as member of parliament for St Ann North East. These two departures in quick succession have led some to conclude that all is not well in the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) camp, and to sing that well-known Trinidadian calypso (Gypsy 1986) “Captain, the ship is sinking”.

Wishful thinking by wannabe conspiracy theorists!

I do think that the departure of Nigel Clarke to greener pastures came as an absolute surprise (and shock) to PM Holness, and that the Marsha Smith Affair is part of the attempt to put someone in his place, and at the same time to try to resurrect the flagging, sinking electoral prospects of the JLP at the general election due in less than a year.

Last week I speculated that PM Holness might place the new finance minister in Minister Clarke’s old seat in St Andrew North Western. I thought it unconscionable – and cowardly – that he would hold that by-election out of political expedience, leaving the residents of Trelawny Southern – already without representation for almost a year – without a voice in parliament.

No parliamentary seat is owned by anyone. Leaving thousands of Jamaicans without representation in parliament for a year because you are waiting for the former MP (who resigned in the face of accusations) to sort out their legal affairs, is morally bankrupt; the comfort of politicians cannot come before the democratic rights of citizens to representation.

Yes, the way the politicians of both parties have set up Jamaica as their private fiefdom is that the incumbent prime minister can call or postpone constituency by-elections as it suits his political advantage. The politicians of both sides have determined that the right of Jamaicans to be represented in parliament is less important than the political advantage of the ruling party.

Trelawny Southern has been vacant for almost a year. I have not heard the People’s National Party (PNP) demanding that a by-election be called.

POX IN BOTH HOUSES

Yes; both the PNP and the JLP want their party leader when in power to be able to call or postpone constituency by-elections as it suits their political advantage. A pox on both of your houses!

Speculations abound as to where Minister Clarke’s replacement will come from. Is the plan for the future finance minister to come from St Ann North East, or will the PM assume that portfolio, leaving Economic Growth and Job Creation to Matthew Samuda?

And so now party leader Holness has determined that it is to his political advantage to now call a by-election in St Ann North East, vacant for less than 24 hours. He has set up the political game well:

• Matthew Samuda resigns (in secret) on Monday, September 2.

• Marsha Smith resigns with immediate effect on Tuesday, September 3.

• PM Holness calls a by-election on Wednesday, September 4.

Pretty!

No, the good ship JLP is not sinking … at least not yet. We have grandstand seats to observe political gamesmanship – Andrew Holness style – of the highest order!

The PNP is ahead in the political opinion polls nationally, and the momentum is in their favour; they should comfortably win a majority of seats in the next general election. But St Ann North East is a safe JLP seat. Here’s the game: there is nothing the JLP would love more than for the PNP to contest the by-election, for the PNP would almost certainly lose, which would boost the flagging morale of the JLP.

The PNP should not make the mistake of playing the JLP’s game; they should decline to contest, saving their ammunition for the main event.

Bearing the opinion polls in mind, and with Nigel Clarke gone, the only hope the JLP has of winning the general election is to demoralise the PNP. They will concentrate party resources and state resources on winning that one constituency, and they will win it handsomely. And then the JLP tribalists will jeer and mock the PNP, and call them cowards for not contesting.

Fun and games!

MANY INNINGS

This gamesmanship has many innings. Holness has promised more by-elections. After the JLP wins St Ann North East, the PM will announce a by-election in Nigel Clarke’s safe seat. The PNP will not contest, and Duane Smith will win comfortably (his father held the seat for 8 consecutive terms). I can hear the taunts of the JLP tribalists now! And the PNP will just have to take it!

After the JLP wins St Ann North East and St Andrew North West, the vintage Audley Shaw will resign in Manchester North Eastern, and Holness will call a by-election in that JLP safe seat, which the PNP will not contest, and which the JLP will easily win. More mocking and crowing!

They will be followed by Karl Samuda, Everald Warmington and J.C. Hutchinson – all in JLP safe seats. (They won’t do Trelawny Southern; they fear they will lose that one; that is why they haven’t called it yet).

And then will come the general election.

The next 12 months will determine whether Andrew Holness gamesmanship will flip public opinion away from the PNP towards the JLP.

The PNP strategy seems to be to sit tight, say nothing, and wait for the clock to run out, hoping that the electorate disaffected with the incumbent government will just vote them out. Saying nothing and promising nothing means that the PNP cannot be accused of not fulfilling election promises.

This may be good gamesmanship and good politics, but it is not good democracy. The PNP must give the electorate reason to vote for them, and not rely on the unpopularity (and frankly, fear) of the Holness administration to hand them an electoral victory.

Peter Espeut is a sociologist and development scientist. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com