Byron Blake | The 2025 Budget has been presented: whither Jamaica?

The 2025 Budget has been presented. There were five presentations, each lasting hours, they for the most part, sober, but burdened with statistics. The minister of finance, the opposition spokesman on finance, and the leader of the opposition selected their periods and issues to make their case. They supported the adage “figures don’t lie, but liars can figure”.

The Doctor Prime Minister gave a full set of statistics from Independence. Many of his interpretations suggest that we are all fools. He rolled the 1970s and 1980s together, focused on the oil crises of 1973 and 1979, and the “socialist policies” of the PNP while gliding over the disastrous Structural Adjustment Policies of the 1980s.

The 1980s, particularly from 1981 to 1984, marked the greatest flow-through of foreign currency resources in Jamaica’s history. With the new Seaga Government, there were tremendous inflows of private investment and loans, alongside multilateral donations and loans. Yet with such favourable inflows the debt to GDP ratio moved from 80 per cent in 1979/80 to 140 per cent in 1981, and 230 per cent in 89/90. The debt to GDP ratio reached 140 per cent once during the entire FINSAC period.

Of particular interest were the presentations by the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader given that all four highlighted the historically chronic low growth of the economy. Would they seek to use the Budget to change that growth scenario given the potentially hostile global environment?

The Prime Minister’s presentation was titled “Jamaica’s next chapter: accelerating growth for your peace, productivity & prosperity” and the Leader of the Opposition’s “Championing change: growth, opportunity and progress for all”, raising expectations.

TRANSFORMATIONAL GROWTH

Their proposal for a level of transformational growth that Jamaica has never experienced. The proposals were assessed through two interrelated lenses. First, the proposals for eliminating the “millstones” or “dead-weights” that have stifled growth over the years. These have been identified to include (i) crime, (ii) corruption, (iii) bureaucracy, (iii) education and skilled resources. Second, the innovative programmes and organisational arrangements to create new products or revitalise and reposition existing products in the local and international markets.

The Prime Minister’s presentation presented some challenges. First, there was no roadmap to where he was going. Second, there were many bells and whistles, but it is unclear how these would come together to create a new momentum. Third, it seemed intent on responding to every problem or new development in the public domain. There are so many small projects that even with the financial resources it might be impossible to execute all of them. And if they did, would they move the needle?

He essentially defined crime as murder. The significant reduction (19 per cent) in murders in 2024, and from January to mid-March was projected as a success of his strategy. This cannot be independently assessed since no plan or strategy has been shared with the public. Further, the reduction since January seemed to coincide with an unprecedented spike in police killings. Is this simply crime suppression? Is it sustainable? There were no new proposals for dealing with the fundamental causes of crime. There were no proposals in either the presentation or text for tackling corruption. The proposal to simplify the procurement process points in the opposite direction. The perception of corruption and the ranking on Global Corruption Indices are closely monitored by other governments, institutions, and private investors, including diaspora members.

Concerning bureaucracy, the PM highlighted his recent appointment of an experienced senator with private sector experience as minister with responsibility for efficiency, innovation, and digital transformation. He did not explain the salient difference with the portfolio previously held by Dana Morris Dixon.

EDUCATION AND SKILL DEVELOPMENT

The PM had many substantial proposals concerning education and skills development. These seem intended to respond to new technologies such as AI and labour market needs. The proposals seem atomised. For example, there are proposals for new STEAM, STEM, and AI schools. These have implications for capital expenditure, human resources, and time. These are all scarce. However, given the basic requirements for these areas of education, we simply need to adjust the curriculum, equip and staff an increasing number of our technical and traditional high schools to produce students who will gravitate towards these specialities. We need also to establish relationships with industry and organisations for practical attachments.

Agriculture, cultural and creative industries and tourism are the areas targeted to deliver the growth. The level of expansion, and the organisational and mindset shifts needed are not obvious. One reason is the desire to claim fiscal prudence. But major change requires major strategic investments.

The Leader of the Opposition’s presentation was more structured and easier to follow. It complemented the presentation of his Finance Spokesman. He highlighted the structural challenges of crime and violence treating it as a public health issue to be addressed through a multidimensional approach involving education, parental education, nutrition, employment, housing, and investment in social transformation. The emphasis on ethics and governance, including the widespread teaching of civics and the philosophy of Marcus Garvey will be important in addressing corruption, and citizens’ responsibility. This, alongside his proposal to chair a task force on the reform of bureaucratic practices, should change the performance, image, and accountability of Government. These elements are implementable with minimal expenditure.

Reforms in education, renewable energy, emerging industries, including cultural industries, agriculture, including the required infrastructure to enhance production, reduce post post-harvest losses, and adapt to climate change are the proposed keys to growth. In an environment of reduced crime and corruption and with the requisite infrastructure, they could stimulate real growth. Whether sufficient to exceed the five or so per cent consistently required to move this economy is to be seen.

It is remarkable that none of the contributors to the Budget debate called for the evaluation of the increased payments to public servants and parliamentarians in terms of enhanced efficiency after two years.

Ambassador Byron Blake is former deputy permanent representative of Jamaica to the United Nations and former assistant secretary general of CARICOM. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com