Ned Brown | US politics is becoming like that of Jamaica

Never in my four decades of working in US politics and elections would I anticipate looking to Jamaican politics for lessons to be learned. However, in the past five years, there are some interesting correlations between the two countries. During my entire political career, and working with many candidates, I have always focused on the math and what it takes to win an election. September 2020 is a case in point with the Jamaican general election. There were approximately 714,000 votes cast to determine 63 parliamentary seats. That means an average of 11,330 votes are cast in each district. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) came out ahead, with 408,376 votes cast, versus 305,950 for the People’s National Party (PNP). So what are the lessons learned?

Turnout and voter enthusiasm matter – In the 2020 US Presidential election, 81 million voted for Joe Biden and 74 million for Donald Trump. Political experts (like me) were surprised to see Trump’s large turnout on election day, but seven million more Americans wanted to move beyond the craziness of Trump with a more stable Joe Biden. In Jamaica’s 2020 election versus 2016, the JLP maintained its 400,000-plus vote threshold while the PNP sank from 433,000 in 2016 to 305,000. At a district level, the JLP now knows that it takes between 5,700 and 6,900 votes to win a parliamentary seat. Clearly, they have a better “get out the vote” operation at the district level, notwithstanding the PNP’s image problems. The JLP knows what it takes to maintain their supermajority (49-14 seats) in the Parliament. In the States, and as I write this, Republicans at the individual state level are attempting to rewrite the rules as to how votes are counted, who gets to vote and rigging the district maps to give Republicans a decided edge in future elections.

Why does this matter? – In Jamaica, to the winner goes the political and financial spoils. US politics is different from Jamaican politics. The media in the US heavily scrutinises our Washington DC politicians for corruption and financial improprieties. The real money and power in US politics are at the state and local levels, where there is far less (if any) media attention. In Jamaica, power and money is centralised at the top to those in power. I will leave it there.

BECOMING TRIBAL

US politics is becoming tribal – Remarking that Jamaican politics is tribal is hardly a newsflash, but it is becoming a new phenomenon in US politics. The US political system is broken. We are becoming more tribalised as TV and online media target their base with a hyperpartisan message. And while Joe Biden decisively beat Donald Trump in the popular and electoral vote counts, and withstood every court challenge by the Trump campaign, 30 per cent of Americans still believe that the election was stolen from Trump. What lays ahead in the 2022 legislative and 2024 legislative and presidential elections is moving the US into uncharted waters. Democracy in the US could literally be at stake.

Where are we headed? – The tried and true adage, whether you are in Jamaica or the US is, “All politics is local.” Whether you are a Jamaican or US politician, ultimately, you have to deliver for your constituents, or they will vote you out. I grew up in Chicago, Illinois, during the 1950s and ‘60s when Richard J. Daley was the all-powerful mayor. My grandfather had two telephones on his office desk: one was for normal in and outcalls; the other had no dialler to make outgoing calls. The latter phone only took incoming calls, and they came from one man: “Da Mair”, as Daley was referred to in Chicago-ese. Daley, basically, made John F. Kennedy president in 1960. And while Daley and his political machine were as corrupt as any at the time, they delivered for the constituents. There were investments in roads, schools, hospitals, and other visible projects to the voters. The Daley philosophy was: you can be crooked, but you have to be competent and deliver for the voters.

What lies ahead? – My distant-from-Jamaica assessment is that the JLP needs to deliver to keep its parliamentary majority, and the PNP needs to define its relevance and why it is a viable alternative. It has been enlightening for me to compare what Jamaican politics is like to how US politics is evolving. Or to put it all in perspective, a successful football coach once opined, “You have to be smart enough to win the match, and dumb enough to think it is important.” Cheers!

Ned Brown is a political adviser and author and worked for the Biden-Harris campaign in 2020. He lives in Charleston, South Carolina, and commutes to Washington, DC. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com