Gordon Robinson | COVID for Christmas

With apologies to Jimmy Fallon, there are only six more sleeps ’til Christmas.

So Government has relaxed pandemic restrictions and announced the lifting of work-from-home orders for public servants. In practically the same breath, the PM, Health Minister, and all high-up Health Ministry officials have warned that a fourth wave is almost inevitable.

Huh?

From the start of the pandemic up to and including June 30, 2021, (16 months with first and second waves), Jamaica recorded 50,166 confirmed cases from 313, 638 PCR tests conducted. This produced an overall positivity rate of 16 per cent, already far above anything considered acceptable. Jamaica also recorded 1,080 deaths or a mortality rate (deaths/confirmed cases) of 2.15 per cent.

For the five-month period from July 1, 2021, to November 30, 2021, inclusive (before, during, and after the third wave), Jamaica recorded 41,126 confirmed cases from 152,631 PCR tests or a positivity rate of 27 per cent. There were another 1,316 deaths, which converted to a mortality rate of 3.2 per cent.

It is statistically conclusive that the third wave was worse than the first two put together. Outside of statistics, we all felt the reality as hospitals were flooded with severely ill patients, oxygen ran out, medical staff was cruelly burned out, and dead bodies were piling up.

But the most important statistic is that of “active cases”. Since only around 100 COVID positives (plus maybe another 50 “suspected”) are in hospital, this means that the overwhelming majority of active cases are out in the wild on Government’s honour system to do the necessaries to avoid encouraging or aggravating the anticipated fourth wave. The true test of any pandemic management’s success is if it can secure more recoveries than new cases so that the number of active cases steadily decreases over time.

In the war against the pandemic, containment is Jamaica’s infantry (first line of defence). But the back-end artillery is health care that deals effectively with those enemy soldiers who overcome the infantry and infect civilians. The ammunition is recoveries.

SUCCESS RATE

So, let’s look closely at how successful we’ve been in defending the invading enemy’s attack. On July 31, 2020, there were 140 active cases recorded (16 per cent of confirmed cases). By August 31, 2020, that had increased by 1,021 PER CENT to 1,569 or 64 PER CENT of confirmed cases! As at June 30, 2021, “active cases” had increased to 18,533, according to the Health Ministry’s daily update,but my simple math (total confirmed cases less recoveries) came up with 19,974.

Using the ministry’s number, active cases had increased again, over 10 months, by 1,008 PER CENT and represented 37% of confirmed cases. By November 30, “active cases” were up to 28,606, a 55% increase on the number of active cases AFTER the first two waves. They were 57 PER CENT of confirmed cases.

Just pause for a moment. Breathe. Take those stats in. Now breathe again.

So, two weeks before Christmas, having finally seen the back of the third wave, with numbers all trending down (compared to November) but with a new variant discovered by South Africa, an unacceptably low national vaccination rate and an anticipated fourth wave to come, Government relaxes restrictions (for Christmas) and announces work-from-home orders will be lifted on January 1.

As the actress said to the bishop, “Something’s cockeyed somewhere!”

The same Government so gung-ho over the declaration of States of Public Emergency (SOEs) to combat crime because it maintains that SOEs “save lives” seems to have no problem with Jamaican lives being sacrificed in a feeble response to an invader that has taken more lives in 2021 than murders.

Police statistics claim that up to December 11, there have been 1,384 murders. For the same period, one murderer, named COVID, has killed 2,123 Jamaicans. So this sombre concern about “saving lives” from gangsters only seems to be evident when the “lives” are to be saved at the expense of the liberty of economically disadvantaged youth who we suspect but can’t convict. Lives that can be saved with reasonable restrictions, sensible mandates, and effective enforcement seem not as valuable and can be forfeited.

Why is Government apparently willing to sacrifice lives killed by COVID but not lives killed by gun? Is there more political advantage in trying to save gunshot victims? Does Government love politics more than it loves us?

They say you’ve found somebody new.

But that won’t stop my loving you.

I just can’t let you walk away;

Forget the love I had for you.

It’s incontrovertible that violence and crime are no good for any economy. But weak COVID management is equally as economically damaging. People rebuild shattered economies. Economies can’t rebuild dead people.

Guess I could find somebody new.

But I don’t want no one but you.

How can you leave without regret?

Am I that easy to forget?

Finally, let’s take a close look at those who have lost everything as a result of Government’s chronic mismanagement of and lack of forward planning in (or maybe its plans didn’t include us) this pandemic. By “everything” I make no reference to livelihoods but instead, to lives.

From March 10 to July 31, 2020, the mortality rate was 1.2 per cent. August 2020’s mortality rate was 0.8 per cent. In September 2020, when deaths from electioneering, election day activities and post-election celebrations began to make themselves known, the mortality rate rose from 0.8 per cent (August) to 2.2 per cent. In. One. Month! October 2020’s mortality rate was a whopping 3.6 per cent, which is more than a percentage point above world average and even USA average.

Overall, since March 2020, Jamaica’s mortality rate has risen from 1.2 per cent to 2.3 per cent by November 30, 2020. The first two waves produced 2 per cent death rates combined. The third (Delta) wave produced an over 3 per cent death rate.

What will the fourth wave, that we seem to be talking about as if it were just an academic exercise, bring? Where exactly is the scientific stimulus for relaxed restrictions for Christmas? Restrictions, already widely ignored, were officially “relaxed” for the premature general election then unofficially for the PNP presidential election and more recently for tourism-related “entertainment”, including what I call Nightmare Weekend.

Why in God’s name would we “relax”? AGAIN!

For Christmas? Really? Seriously? Are. We. That. Easy. To. Forget? Be careful how you spurn us in your quest for Yuletide dollars!

Before you leave be sure you find

you want his love much more than mine.

‘Cause I’ll just say we’ve never met

if I’m that easy to forget.

The first recording of haunting country song Am I That Easy to Forget was made in 1958 by popular star of stage and screen Debbie Reynolds. In 1962, country music legend Jim Reeves made it a huge hit, and in 1968, another legend, Marty Robbins, also scored with the song. But the most popular version was recorded in 1969 when British crooner Engelbert Humperdinck turned it into a global hit. Gerry Dorsey had been toiling in the recording wilderness for years until in 1965, he teamed up with new manager Gordon Mills, who changed his stage name to Engelbert Humperdinck (a 19th-century German composer). The rest, as they say, is history.

TELL THE TRUTH

What’s Christmas exactly (because it isn’t Christ’s birthday)? Even if it was, Jesus himself would ask that birthday parties be postponed until 2022. Why won’t the Government stop the disgraceful obfuscation and tell us the truth, which is that Big Business is pressuring it to “relax” so that Big Business can make MORE PROFIT at the expense of hoodwinked customers who will be told it’s ok to splurge scarce reserves? And for crying out loud on a rainy night, don’t take us for fools by pretending the benefit is intended for small businesses! Mash down that lie!

What should Government do? It’s time to tell the nation the truth, which is that Santa Claus tested positive for the Omicron variant and will be isolating himself until the New Year. Why reduce curfew hours and send vulnerable public servants back to air-conditioned offices in January when you’re expecting a fourth wave? Keep COVID restrictions as they were before December 10.

What can we do? The correct message of motivation for Jamaicans suffering from COVID fatigue and anxious to revel for “Christmas” is that the cavalry is here. Vaccines are aplenty. All you have to do is take them. If you do, you’ll relieve yourselves of duty as Trojan Horses and should be able to have a holly jolly Christmas 2022.

So sit tight. Forego Christmas 2021 so that we’ll have a better chance to see Christmas 2022.

Alternatively, you could open longer hours. Make more money. Have a very covidy Christmas while condemning many more of your fellow citizens to a lonely death.

Your choice.

Peace and Love!

Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.