Mark Wignall | A seesaw on PNP and JLP

Between Tina (29) and Desic (43), a few of the main voting tendencies were represented as we sat (and spoke) by a ‘pap dung’ domino table on well-worn plastic chairs in a usually loud and vibrant inner-city hamlet along a semi-rural St Andrew roadway.

Just about everybody stole light from the JPS poles and, so brazen were they about it, it means nothing for persons there to openly string a long insulated copper cable above and across the road while all types of vehicles are using the roadway. It is a sad cultural reality. It began to drizzle as the JPS van drove off. Two women of substantial size and a young man rushed in with the copper cable replacement. The washing machine will spin later.

Tina sounded the more intelligent of the two. Some months ago, she told me that, if she had a super rich man and she decided to rob him, she would prefer to steal his Michelangelo than his money. That told me a lot about her. She was unemployed with one child and luckily supported by the babyfather.

In tight shorts as always, as if a dress and jeans were her clothing enemies, she rose from her chair and said to my questioning, “Mi vote JLP last election but mi nuh so sure bout dem dis time yah whey a come.”

I then asked, “So does that mean that Golding and the PNP sure a yu vote?” She glared at me while tugging at a part of her half-Indian hair. “Make no such assumption. Mi nuh even know whey PNP stand fah.” I sensed that she still had a JLP tendency but, in February, it was only lukewarm.

I turned to Desic, a stone mason. “Mark, mi nuh si nutten inna di politics.” I decided to use a friendly taunt with him.

“Yu look like a PNP man,” I said.

“Mi vote one time and mi nah tell nobody how me vote! Even though dem sey election a come, mi nuh tink mi ago vote but may as well wi jus gwaan wid di one wi have now.”

I was still taunting him.”Oh, you mean the PNP?”

“No man. Mi believe sey dem a go vote back fi Holness.”

The recent Nationwide Blue Dot combination and RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson polls’ latest findings have unearthed a little bit of good news for both parties. The Nationwide poll is showing a likely voting intention favouring the JLP by six per cent points. “The polls suggest the messaging of the PNP is starting to lose ground among voters as the date for the next general elections draws closer.”

According to the RJRGLEANER Don Anderson poll, the JLP scores moderately good on jobs while the PNP is seen as better for poor people. That’s a tricky one. The question is, which one of those is deemed stronger in triggering the vote?

It seems to me that the template laid down by Michael Manley in the political turbulence of the 1970s as the more caring leader of the times in comparison to Eddie Seaga, perceived as better at managing the macroeconomy but somewhat cold in embracing the plight of the poorest among us, is seeing a little awakening. Some of those closest to Seaga saw it as what Americans would call ‘a bum rap’.

The PNP’s solid eight per cent points more than the JLP in ‘looking after the poor’ could mean that some voters believe that the PNP has ready-made welfare programmes to help poor people, even if the economy is not yet ready to give the poor a bigger bite or a taste of the production pie.

IS THERE WIND AT THE JLP’s BACK?

When Prime Minister Andrew Holness cites the historically low unemployment that Jamaica has at present, it is cited as fact. That is politically painful for any opposition party to comfortably digest. It is not a tweaking of facts, and it is certainly not hyperbole.

The only avenue left for the PNP to criticise is by pouncing on the quality of those jobs. “While those jobs have provided employment opportunities, they cannot serve as the foundation for a robust and resilient economy. To advance, Jamaica must pivot towards a future that priorities value-added exports,” said Opposition Spokesperson on Finance, Julian Robinson.

Value-added exports? Surely Robinson cannot be trying to make two cases. One, trying to pour cold water on the present job opportunities as if, in the PNP’s world, a new education/training system exists outside of the one we now have. Two, when he speaks of value-added, it seems he wants to bring focus on the farming community.

Who is it that is likely to reap the big benefits of value-added production and exports? The big employer. I agree, though, that under a great value-added programme more of those in the farming community would be employed, but would those jobs ‘serve as the foundation for a robust and resilient economy’? I think not.

Maybe the PNP is trying to identify and re-energise the Manley sentiment in the farming community as both parties hit the road in lively political rivalry after the Budget.

WILL CORRUPTION CONCERNS FADE AWAY AND DIE?

A Jamaican professional who lives in Florida and regularly travels between Miami and Montego Bay said to me recently, “Every time I speak to fellow Jamaicans living in Jamaica, they moan about the perception of open and rampant corruption of VIPs and all over Jamaica.

“Can we truly say that the JLP is unequivocally trustworthy and more concerned about corruption than the PNP? Would we feel safe leaving our doors and windows open if we know its agents were just outside our gate?

“I will submit to you, Mark, that even if the economic policies promoted by the JLP are good for Jamaica, a troubling perception still poisons the well. “ The PNP is going to ride it as if they were once angels.

I know that, even if many Jamaicans did not attend the big schools and universities, they are intelligent, smart, astute people. They know the runnings and they know where the corruption is, top to bottom. What incentive or desire do Jamaicans have to do the right thing when VIPs are pocketing barrels of cash in corrupt ways?

Quite naturally, the people feel betrayed and do their own thing, which is to engage in corruption themselves.

Mark Wignall is a political and public affairs analyst. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and mawigsr@gmail.com