Urgent need for social policy reforms as population ages, says STATIN
Published:Monday | February 3, 2025 | 5:11 PMEdmond Campbell/Senior Staff Reporter
Jamaica’s policymakers have been urged to closely monitor the country’s shifting demographic trends and take proactive measures to implement comprehensive policies addressing the growing needs of the elderly population, specifically those aged 65 and older.
The United Nations predicts that by 2050, Jamaica will have a larger proportion of dependent elderly people than children in its population.
Stacy-Ann Robinson, director of the Censuses, Demographic and Social Statistics Division at the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), revealed that while children are expected to make up 16.9 per cent of the population in 2050, the dependent elderly will account for 18.5 per cent. In comparison, the elderly population in 2019 was 9.7 per cent, up from 4.3 per cent in 1960.
In 1960, children under 15 represented 41.2 per cent of the population, but by 2019, that share was slashed by more than a half, falling to 20.9 per cent.
Robinson highlighted the urgent nature of the shift in demographics for dependents, stressing that in 25 years the elderly dependent population will surpass the child population. She called it “absolutely alarming”.
Making a presentation last week in Gordon House to a special select committee reviewing a private member’s motion on the elderly, the STATIN official argued that family members – and particularly the working-age population – would have an increased elderly population depending on them for support.
On October 25, 2024, the Senate passed a motion to formulate an Elderly Care and Protection Act to safeguard the country’s seniors. The motion was moved by opposition senator Professor Floyd Morris.
Robinson advised the committee that multiple areas need immediate attention, including social protection programmes like pensions, health insurance, and social services. She also pointed to the productivity of the elderly workforce (ages 60-64), pension fund sustainability, and the provision of care services for seniors as areas for urgent reform.
Morris said the STATIN presentation would help the committee in a significant way as it deliberates on this critical issue.
“Coming out of this sitting, we are going to be making our findings to the Senate, then it will go to Cabinet for them to deliberate on how the legislation should be formulated. What you have given us so far is significant and the chair has alluded to this so far,” Morris said.
Government senator Sherene Golding Campbell chairs the select committee.
Robinson emphasised that population ageing is a global phenomenon, affecting nearly every country except for Africa. This demographic shift is poised to create significant social transformations, influencing nearly every sector, from labour markets to housing, transportation, and intergenerational family dynamics.
The STATIN director highlights that the size and age composition of a population are determined jointly by three demographic processes – fertility, mortality and migration.
“Population ageing occurs when these three demographic processes combine to create a situation where there is increasingly more elderly people in the population, primarily due to declining birth rates, increasing life expectancy, and migration patterns where older individuals move into a country resulting in a larger proportion of the population being in old age groups,” Robinson said.
Older migrants
When a population has consistently low birth rates, there are fewer young people entering the population to replace the older generation as they age, said Robinson, adding that this now leads to a larger proportion of older people.
If a country experiences a high influx of older migrants, it can significantly contribute to population ageing. In the case of Jamaica, the country has a number of migrants who voluntarily return annually. Robinson said this has contributed to the fast growing elderly population in Jamaica.
In 2019, at least 721 voluntary migrants returned to Jamaica. In 2020, it increased to 731. This number increased again in 2021 to 867.
In 2022, it dipped to 787, but in 2023, it increased again to 943. STATIN indicates that returning residents are mainly elderly individuals.
Over the last 20 years, Jamaica has experienced significant changes in its population. Robinson indicated that on average, women are having about two children. Additionally, on average, a Jamaican can expect to live for around 75 years and many have lived well beyond 80 years.
The last reproductive health survey that was conducted locally in 2021 stated that the replacement level fertility is now 1.9, placing Jamaica just below the replacement level fertility.
The STATIN official said the shift Jamaica is now seeing in its age structure is a declining 10 to 14 child population and increasing 15 to 64 working age population and a very fast growing dependent elderly population of 65 and over.
Providing statistics on the working elderly in Jamaica, STATIN states that in 2011, the age group 60 to 64 numbered 88,162. This increased to 113,958 in 2019.
At the same time, in 2011, the elderly population 65 years and older numbered 222,672, but it increased to 265,397 in 2019.
Health issues
In terms of health issues, the three most prevalent non-communicable diseases afflicting persons aged 60 to 64 years are hypertension, diabetes and arthritis.
The prevalence of diabetes was highest among this cohort of the population, with 40.3 per cent affected by hypertension, 17 per cent by diabetes, and 15.1 per cent having arthritis.
Although the prevalence of chronic diseases was high among the dependent elderly population, health insurance coverage was proportionately low at 24.7 per cent.
In terms of social pension grants, 6,232 elderly persons received this benefit in 2021 – the year it was introduced. By 2023, the number of elderly persons who received the benefit increased to 11,743. Additionally, the number of elderly enrolled in the National Insurance Scheme grew from 95,317 in 2020 to 103,823 in 2023. The number of elderly enrolled in the Programme of Advancement Through Health and Education also jumped from 68,179 in 2020 to 71,319 in 2023.
Robinson also highlighted food security concerns, noting that only 53.1 per cent of households headed by someone aged 60 or older report having enough food regularly.