Earth Today | Emissions rising

GOVERNMENTS PLAN to produce some 110 per cent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and 69 per cent more than would be consistent with 2 degrees Celsius.

This is according to a November 8 news release from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), citing findings from the 2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises.

“This comes despite 151 national governments having pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and the latest forecasts which suggest global coal, oil, and gas demand will peak this decade, even without new policies,” it explained.

“When combined, government plans would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050, creating an ever-widening fossil fuel production gap over time,” the release said further.

The report is produced by Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development and the UNEP. It assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas against global levels consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.

More than 80 researchers, from over 30 countries, contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks and other research organisations.

DOUBLE TROUBLE

“Governments are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production; that spells double trouble for people and planet,” noted UN Secretary General António Guterres said in the UNEP release.

“We cannot address climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause: fossil fuel dependence. COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas – that its end is inevitable. We need credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, and boost energy efficiency, while ensuring a just, equitable transition,” he added.

July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded, and most likely the hottest for the past 120,000 years, according to scientists. Across the globe, deadly heat waves, droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods are costing lives and livelihoods, making clear that human-induced climate change is here. Global carbon dioxide emissions – almost 90 per cent of which come from fossil fuels – rose to record highs in 2021-2022.

Despite being the root cause of the climate crisis, fossil fuels have remained largely absent from international climate negotiations until recent years. At COP26 in late 2021, governments committed to accelerate efforts towards “the phase-down of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”, though they did not agree to address the production of all fossil fuels.

“COP28 could be the pivotal moment where governments finally commit to the phase-out of all fossil fuels and acknowledge the role producers have to play in facilitating a managed and equitable transition,” noted Michael Lazarus, a lead author on the report and SEI US Centre Director.

“Governments with the greatest capacities to transition away from fossil fuel production bear the greatest responsibility to do so while providing finance and support to help other countries do the same,” he added.