Earth Today | COP28 a mixed bag

THIS YEAR’S international climate talks (COP28) have been described as a mixed bag of outcomes, with vulnerable countries, including Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS), continuing to feel that there are yet many miles to travel to achieve climate security.

“COP28 is definitely a mixed bag. Obviously, the biggest outcome was the operationalisation and capitalisation of the Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund. This was a key demand from SIDs and LDCs (least developed countries),” noted Executive Director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Dr Colin Young, who was among the regional players at the two weeks of negotiations in Dubai.

He added that while the initial capitalisation of the fund – to the tune of some US$755 million, received in pledges from various countries – is “an important start”, it is a “drop in the bucket”.

“The rapid capitalisation at the COP is welcomed, but for the fund to be effective to meet needs of those countries most vulnerable, it needs significantly more money,” Young said.

Dr Donovan Campbell, professor of environmental geography at The University of the West Indies and one of a worldwide network of researchers who have contributed to a Global Stocktake (GST) of evidence on the global response to climate change, agreed.

“The operationalisation of the L&D Fund is a positive development for the Caribbean as it offers opportunities for financial support and improved climate justice, which should be celebrated. However, the size of the fund is still to be determined, and it is unlikely to be sufficient to fully meet the needs of vulnerable Caribbean countries,” he explained.

“The estimated adaptation finance needs for LDCs and SIDS range from US$29-41 billion per year. Even when the size of the fund is determined, it is unrealistic to expect that this amount of public money will materialise at the necessary pace and in the amounts required to address the climate problem we currently face. In fact, the flow of international public adaptation finance to developing countries has declined since 2020,” Campbell added.

SIDS have engaged a years-long lobby for a L&D Fund to enable compensation for loss and damage associated with climate threats and impacts, including extreme hurricanes and other weather events and to which they are especially vulnerable.

LIMITED PROGRESS

Meanwhile, notwithstanding the inroads made re the L&D Fund, Young said that the progress they wanted to see concerning raised ambitions to realise the 1.5 goal and financing to safeguard resilience and for, in particular, vulnerable countries was limited coming out of this year’s COP.

“The next major issue was the GST. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), including CARICOM, wanted to see bold action that was aligned to 1.5. Regretfully, AOSIS, including Caribbean SIDS, felt that the text did not go far enough, and that it contains many loopholes that collectively may lead to a regression,” the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre boss explained.

SIDS have, and continue to, advocate for significantly scaled-up mitigation actions that can yield a no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures. Those actions, they have insisted, should include the move away from fossil fuels, which fuel global warming, bringing climate threats ever closer to the world’s most vulnerable, while worsening those already being experienced.

“The developed and large developing countries point to para 28 (d) [of the draft outcome document] which, for the first time in a COP text, speaks to ‘transition away from fossil fuels systems’. [However], for SIDS, the outcome did not go far enough to protect 1.5 and protect the most vulnerable,” he added.

A similar sentiment has come from the Alliance of Small Island Developing States, which represents the interests of 39 small-island and low-lying coastal developing states, including Caribbean SIDS, in international climate change and sustainable development negotiations and processes.

“The draft text you have presented to us contains many good elements. We see strong references to the science complemented by a clear runway, with milestones for strengthening party efforts to prepare and submit enhanced NDCs through to 2025. We also welcome the establishment of the technology implementation programme. These elements are important,” noted AOSISS lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, in addressing the closing plenary of COP28.

“The question we have considered as AOSIS is whether they are enough. Zoning in on paragraphs 26-29 of this draft decision, we have come to the conclusion that the course correction that is needed has not yet been secured. We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual, when what we really needed is an exponential step change in our actions and support,” she added.

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