After COP28, now what?

ANOTHER ROUND of global climate talks (COP28) has come and gone, leaving some feeling unheard, while others shake their heads at what has been described as a “loophole-ridden text” reflecting outcomes from the negotiations.

Still, there are others like Eleanor Jones, a sustainable development professional and member of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica, who considers that there is hope yet to build resilience for the survival of Caribbean and other small island developing states (SIDS); and room to collaborate across sectors and countries for a secure climate future for all.

“Perhaps the expectations were greater than the reality,” conceded Jones, a member of the Jamaican delegation to COP28, hosted in Dubai from November 30 to December 12.

“I don’t think we got a lot from the negotiations themselves. We wanted more money, that kind of thing, and for them [developed and fast developing countries] to say they are coming off fossil fuels. But we just have to keep pushing,” she added.

According to Jones, who heads the consultancy firm Environmental Solutions Limited, there was more to the COP than the deliberations among negotiators.

“I operated outside of the negotiations, looking at [the display of] what was happening in the different countries. What I observed is that there is a sense that fossil fuels are no longer the ‘be all and end all’, and some of the major fossil producers are looking at renewables,” she noted.

The transition to renewable energy sources is essential to derailing the climbing global temperatures, which trigger the range of climate risks and threats – from rising sea levels to extreme weather events to which SIDS are especially vulnerable.

“When you look at Saudi Arabia and what they have done in the last year, such as billions of trees planted, looking at carbon capture, etc, the trends are positive,” Jones explained.

“Also, we did not get the level of income, but we had investments that were made, such as in the Loss and Damage Fund,” she added.

The operationalisation and initial capitalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund is regarded as the major achievement from COP28, certainly for Caribbean and other SIDS that lobbied over many years for compensation for climate-related impacts.

GREATER CAPITAL

Head of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Dr Colin Young, for his part, has said that while the initial capitalisation is welcomed, much more is required.

“The estimated adaptation finance needs for LDCs [least developed countries] and SIDS range from US$29-41 billion per year. Even when the size of the fund is determined, it is unrealistic to expect that this amount of public money will materialise at the necessary pace and in the amounts required to address the climate problem we currently face. In fact, the flow of international public adaptation finance to developing countries has declined since 2020,” he noted.

Also counted among the gains is the reference in the outcome document to a transition away from fossil fuels.

“People power has propelled us to the doorstep of history, but leaders have stopped short of entering the future we need,” said May Boeve, executive director of 350.org in a release to the media.

“It is frustrating that 30 years of campaigning managed to get ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ in the COP text, but it is surrounded by so many loopholes that it has been rendered weak and ineffectual. The prize is finally on the table – a phaseout of fossil fuels and a world powered by renewable energy – but rather than clearing the way to it, we’ve been presented with yet another set of distracting doors that could still hold oil and gas expansion, and we don’t know just where the finance will come from,” Boeve added.

Jones has herself said that far more needs to be done to enable scaled-up adaptation, that is, changes in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects in SIDS. She added that what is critical now is for the needs from the COP to be elaborated while SIDS act on available opportunities.

Indi Mclymont Lafayette, a long-time climate justice advocate, noted her own disappointment with COP28, but agreed with Jones that SIDS must remain undaunted in pursuit of what they need for their climate security. This includes securing greater emissions ambitions for a no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures above preindustrial levels.

“I do agree that the outcomes of this COP are weak, especially for SIDS. For us the target of cutting global emissions to 1.5 degrees is key for our survival. This COP didn’t adequately address the steps needed to get this, for example cutting out fossil fuel use or doing away with oil over a specific time frame,” she said.

“So the COP is over and SIDS are feeling unheard. Caribbean islands like Jamaica have to increase their calls in the global arena for the major emitters to take action to reduce their emissions and honour the Paris Agreement,” she added.

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