Jimmie Says | Numbers don’t lie

Add 27 lame horses to Caymanas Park’s vet’s list, last Saturday and Monday, to the roughly 68 recorded since May 27, exactly one month, that’s 95 runners who were given a minimum of three weeks by the veterinarian not to partake in events unless passed fit.

The sick irony of the Jamaica Racing Commission’s (JRC) vet’s list is that there are horses being passed fit to return to the races, ahead of the initially recommended period, only to break down on punters’ money, afflicted by the same lameness with which they were stood down.

Take note that 95 lame horses are just shy of an average nine-race card fielding roughly 10 runners per event. That’s an accumulative racecard of horses sporting a three-week doctor’s certificate not to show up for work.

If the vet’s list paints a grim picture of the overall health of the rapidly declining horse population at Caymanas Park, then a recent report presented to the executives of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association (TOBA) by Manager Roshane Douse must be the Mona Lisa.

LOWEST MARK IN 15 YEARS

In a three-year span, 2017-2020, the racing industry lost 34 per cent of its foal crop, hitting its lowest mark in 15 years last season when total registered yearlings averaged 182, down from a high of 397 in 2016 – that’s 215 fewer yearlings registered to race as two-year-olds next season, as opposed to four years ago.

Let’s get creative. Having spent most of math classes on the Purple side of North Street reading racebooks, does not in any way affect simple arithmetic such as quickly coming up with 18.2 starters on an average 10-race card, from the 182 foals registered last season, should they all make it to the races and progress to at least age four. That’s 1.82 starter per race from an entire season of breeding.

In 2020, 664 mares were registered – 473 being in foal, 153 barren and 38 not bred – which brings us to the previous season, 2019, whose offspring should be racing as two-year-olds this year. The operative word is ‘should’ because not one two-year-old has come under starter’s orders at Caymanas Park this season, which has left some people griping, comparing the 1990s to present day.

Having been prompted to “write” about the situation, one of the many requests fielded on a weekly basis – ranging from “no catering” in the COVID-19 protocol-restricted North Lounge to the range of beverages available at the bar – Douse’s 2019 statistics of 251 registered yearlings has had the TOBA manager and Racing Secretary Denzil Miller nibbling at their nails, hoping they get 10 starters for the first two-year-old race scheduled for August 2.

PRIDE AND JOY

It, therefore, boggles the mind that reference could be made to late 80s and early 90s of two-year-old races starting in April. It is, indeed, imperative that local racing needs persons who take pride and joy in either breeding or purchasing young horses. However, there is a high possibility that come April 2022 more than half the 251 registered yearlings for 2019 might not have even faced the starter as three-year-olds.

This brings us right back to the source of foals – mares, mares, mares. For the years 2019 and 2020, the mare count was static, 664 registered. However, for 2016, there were 711 mares on book when 397 yearlings were registered, that’s a difference of 47 mares, not much by the best of standards, considering there were 432 yearlings registered in 2009.

The magic number for 2009, the best season in 15 years, was 842 mares registered, 704 in foal, 93 barren and 45 not bred. Jamaica needs to urgently increase its mare stock to even consider having two-year-old races in the summer, don’t even think about April and whether 20 two-year-old purses have been “lost” by owners this season, as opposed to nearly three decades ago.

Again, it is time for Anthony Shoucair to stand up and be counted. Shoucair’s paper on a National Stud needs to be resurrected from wherever it has been in storage at Winchester Road.

An industry consensus on the way forward is needed. Never waste a good crisis.

COVID-19 is the tonic for the racing industry to prove that all its participants, drawn from every known profession locally, can implement a master plan to convince not only the finance minister, but the country, that the benefits of an all-inclusive National Stud will redound financially for generations, way beyond that imaginable.