Qatar heat, unusual schedule could make for unpredictable World Cup

I WOKE one morning last week to evidence that anticipation is rising for next month’s kick-off of the World Cup in Qatar. A fan zapped me with a WhatsApp message saying, “I can’t wait for the World Cup.”

Everywhere I go, people are buzzing about what might happen in football’s biggest tournament. It’s hard to tell. On one hand, you might conclude that the sport’s general order of standing will be maintained in Qatar, host country of the World Cup starting on November 20. After all, 13 of the teams that reached the knockout stage at the 2018 World Cup have qualified for Qatar.

That baker’s dozen includes both finalists, World Cup holders France and beaten finalists Croatia, beaten semi-finalists Belgium and England, and two other 2018 quarter-finalists, Brazil and Uruguay. Add Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Switzerland, Mexico and Japan to the list of 2018-2022 survivors and the look of familiarity grows.

Moreover, the register outlined above features all but one winner of the World Cup since 2000: Brazil in 2002, Spain in 2010, Germany in 2014 and France in 2018.

So, it might be reasonable to expect one of these survivors to win in Qatar because of their battle-tested quality.

However, this will be a World Cup like no other in one important regard. Owing to Qatar’s searing summer heat, the tournament will be held beyond July for the first time. It most often starts in June with 32 teams battling for supremacy for about a month. The exceptions are rare. In 1966, when England won at home, the first ball rolled on July 11. When Uruguay won the first World Cup in 1930, the tournament began on July 13.

SCHEDULING CONUNDRUM

This year’s tournament has forced club football into a scheduling conundrum. The English Premier League, for example, will break after the November 11/12 weekend, a week and a half ahead of the World Cup kick-off on the 20th, and will resume on Boxing Day.

That’s a radical change. Normally, the World Cup is played during club football’s summer break, allowing national coaches to gather their selected players and to blend them into units directed by one goal and one playing system. That rhythm has been interrupted and I wonder if it will affect the results in Qatar.

In addition, in so much as footballers train to peak for big objectives, it may well be that the unusual schedule will be as much of a factor as Qatar’s typical November 29 degree temperatures. Lest we forget, the heat was a decisive factor in Group D in the 2014 World Cup where Italy and England wilted in the Amazonian city of Manaus, with Uruguay and Costa Rica advancing in their stead.

Pitch-level cooling systems, first seen at the 2019 World Athletics Championships, will help at playing and practice venues.

However, as the fever rises, the new schedule, its effect on peaking requirements and the Qatar heat could make this World Cup harder to gauge.