Biden: Russian threat to invade Ukraine still ‘very high’

KYIV, Ukraine (AP):

Fears of a new war in Europe resurged Thursday as US President Joe Biden warned that Russia could invade Ukraine within days, and violence spiked in a long-running stand-off in eastern Ukraine that some fear could be the spark for wider conflict.

World dignitaries raced for solutions but suspicions between East and West only seemed to grow, as NATO allies rejected Russian assertions it was pulling back troops from exercises that had fuelled fears of an attack. Russia is believed to have built up some 150,000 military forces around Ukraine’s borders.

Concerns escalated in the West over what exactly Russia is doing with those troops – including an estimated 60 per cent of the overall Russian ground forces. The Kremlin insists it has no plans to invade, but has long considered Ukraine its sphere of influence and NATO’s eastward expansion an existential threat.

The US government issued some of its starkest, most detailed warnings yet about what could happen next.

Speaking at the UN Security Council, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed some conclusions of US intelligence in a strategy that the US and Britain have hoped will expose and pre-empt any invasion planning. The US has declined to reveal much of the evidence underlying its claims.

JUSTIFICATION

He told the diplomats that a sudden, seemingly violent event staged by Russia to justify invasion would kick it off.

“We don’t know exactly” the pretext – a “so-called terrorist bombing” inside Russia, a staged drone strike, “a fake, even a real attack … using chemical weapons,” he said.

It would open with cyberattacks, along with missiles and bombs across Ukraine, he said. Painting the US picture further, Blinken described the entry of Russian troops, advancing on Kyiv, a city of nearly three million, and other key targets.

US intelligence indicated Russia also would target “specific groups” of Ukrainians, Blinken said, again without giving details.

In an implicit nod to Secretary of State Colin Powell’s appearance before the security council in 2003, when he cited unsubstantiated and false U.S. intelligence to justify the US invasion of Iraq, Blinken added: “Let me be clear. I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one.”

Biden’s own comments on the Russian threat were unusually dire.

Speaking at the White House, he said Washington saw no signs of a promised Russian withdrawal, and said the invasion threat remains “very high” because Russia has moved more troops toward the border with Ukraine instead of pulling them back.

“Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine,” Biden told reporters. He said the US has “reason to believe” that Russia is “engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” but did not provide details.

Biden also said he had no plans to speak soon with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Even without an attack, the sustained Russian pressure on Ukraine has further hobbled its shaky economy and left an entire nation under constant strain. Eastern Ukraine already has been the site of fighting since 2014 that has killed 14,000, and tensions soared again Thursday.