Russia wants allies, so it’s hosting an Africa summit

NAIROBI (AP):

As Russia seeks more allies during its invasion of Ukraine, longtime US security partner Kenya might not be an obvious choice. But hours after Russia terminated a deal to keep grain flowing from Ukraine, Moscow’s ambassador saw an opening to appeal to one of the African countries that would feel the effects the most.

In an opinion piece for two of Kenya’s largest newspapers, Ambassador Dmitry Maksimychev blamed the United States and the European Union for the deal’s collapse, asserting that they had “used every trick” to keep Russian grain and fertiliser from the global markets.

“Now, my dear Kenyan friends, you know the whole truth about who is weaponising food,” he wrote.

It is the kind of brash outreach expected this week at the second Russia-Africa Summit. Grain supplies are in question. The future of the Wagner military group is, too. It is a notable time for Russia to host nearly 50 African countries that rely heavily on Moscow for agricultural products and security. It is not clear how many heads of state will attend.

President Vladimir Putin’s government is under new pressure to show its commitment to a continent of 1.3 billion people that is increasingly assertive on the global stage.

Africa’s 54 nations make up the largest voting bloc at the United Nations and have been more divided than any other region on General Assembly resolutions criticising Russia’s invasion.

If they leave the two-day summit, which starts Thursday, feeling unheeded, they might distance themselves from Russia, said analyst Cameron Hudson with the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“I think you could see Africans beginning to vote with their feet,” he said. “This is a decisive moment for both Africa and Putin in their relationship.”

Putin has repeatedly said that Russia would offer free grain to low-income African countries now that the grain deal has been terminated. “I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis,” Putin said in a statement Monday, asserting that Russia shipped almost 10 million tons of grain to Africa in the first half of this year.

Wagner rebellion

The Russian military company Wagner, after its brief rebellion against Moscow, will be an urgent issue for countries like Sudan, Mali, and others who contract with the mercenary group in exchange for natural resources like gold. Russia’s foreign minister has said Wagner’s work in Africa will continue.

As for a peace proposal for Ukraine that African leaders have tried to pursue, that “could be discussed” at the summit, Russian ambassador-at-large Oleg Ozerov told the Kommersant newspaper.

Putin himself is a question. He has visited sub-Saharan Africa only once in more than two decades in power. Last week, after considerable diplomatic pressure, South Africa announced that Putin had agreed not to attend an economic summit there in August because of an arrest warrant for him by the International Criminal Court over Ukraine.

South Africa’s debate over whether to arrest him was another sign of the ambivalence towards Moscow by a once-steady US ally. But President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office on Friday made clear that African leaders are working “for an end to the destabilising Ukraine-Russia war”, saying it would be in the continent’s economic interests.

The US-backed Africa Center for Strategic Studies has predicted that Russia will try to pull other influential countries, including Ethiopia, Congo, Nigeria, and Senegal, into its orbit. Africa is “the most welcoming region for Russia of any other region in the world”, the centre’s Joseph Siegle said.

Like China, Russia tries to appeal to African nations’ distaste at feeling dictated to by global powers.

Despite its high profile in Africa, Russia invests relatively little in it. At the first Russia-Africa Summit in 2019, Putin vowed to double Russia’s trade with the continent within five years. Instead, it has stalled at around $18 billion a year. Moscow offers less than one per eent of what goes to Africa in foreign direct investment, with almost no humanitarian aid.