Engage the IMF now

Ed Bartlett, Jamaica's tourism minister, estimates that 300,000 fewer stopover visitors will come to Jamaica this year than initially projected. This will translate to a loss of around US$350 million, which will leave earnings from the sector flat, when compared to 2009-2010.

This fallout in tourism is one of the consequences of last week's unrest when gangs fought the security forces to prevent the arrest of drug lord Christopher Coke.

The development is unfortunate. Tourism was one of the few sectors growing in an economy still sluggish from the global recession. So, the 3.5 per cent decline in GDP expected this year is likely to be now deeper. Performance targets under Jamaica's standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may be affected.

We will perhaps pass the fund's next quarterly test in July, but the government should begin talking about a waiver with the IMF now to prevent a crisis later.

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