Argentina for World Cup Football

On Sunday last, Ali McNab, former national footballer and now football analyst on CVM TV's coverage of World Cup Football 2010, was asked by the host Wayne Walker to make a prediction on the game between Brazil and Cte d'Ivoire. McNab said Brazil would win and then added that the viewers should not be surprised if a different result happens.

His hedging his comments like that reminds me of a previous World Cup in which one of Jamaica's renowned coaches was asked to make a prediction on the outcome of the World Cup and his insightful comment was that the team that scores the most goals would win the World Cup. One expects that for the Brazil vs Cte d'Ivoire matchup there would be more analysis of trends such as no African team have ever scored on Brazil much less to even win a match against Brazil. In addition, Brazil have a coach who has won the World Cup as a player and has had success in the World Cup campaign while Cte d'Ivoire's coach came on board in March and their main player is not 100 per cent fit. The analyst needs to do more rigorous analysis and be able to deliver at the level of the technical analysis given by Peter Prendergast, a former World Cup referee.

History of polls

It was the same Sunday that the Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls found that the People's National Party (PNP) would garner 38 per cent of the votes while the JLP would 19 per cent. The history of polls has escaped many political analysts. I cannot recall a poll here or the United Kingdom or the United States of America where the Opposition has doubled the support of the governing party. This is like an 800-metre race in which one athlete laps the other runner by the time one reaches the finish line. Neither can I recall a governing party losing so much support in such a short time. This is a political governance nightmare. In such a situation, opposition parties tend to get more assertive while unpopular governing parties tend to get more oppressive. The political analyses need more rigour.

Therefore, based on the type of football analysis and political analysis, I feel confident to become a football analyst. Argentina will win because of two players that they have - Lionel Messi, World Footballer of the Year, and Carlos Tevez who can, single-handedly, win a match. They are gifted players. They are world-class players with Messi being someone you would travel miles to watch. In addition, they are very attacking and, we know, goals win matches. Argentina have six strikers in their squad. The Argentinian team has depth, so if a player is having an off day or is injured or has been suspended, they have very good substitutes. Diego Maradona is an intelligent coach. For the match on Tuesday against the Greek team, he started with seven new players and won 2-0. He has given every player a feel of the World Cup atmosphere. He has instilled confidence in the bench. The Argentinian team does not have the best defence but their forwards will cover for them.

Furthermore, Diego Maradona has been there and done that. He knows what it takes to win a World Cup. He is also relaxed and having fun à la Usain Bolt. He seems to be a big brother to the players and is openly affectionate to them.

It is sad that so many of the African teams went for European coaches. Only the South African team had a Brazilian coach who won the World Cup with Brazil. South Africa performed creditably with a victory over France and ended with four points. One would have expected the African teams to hire more Brazilian and Argentinian coaches. The results might have been better.

So for World Cup Football 2010, my prediction is that Argentina will win but as a good football analyst would say, "do not be surprised if the results go the other way".