Combative Colombian, volatile Venezuela

Gwynne Dyer, Contributor

On July 22, President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia accused Venezuela of allowing left-wing Colombian rebels to have bases on the Venezuelan side of the 2,000-km. (1,400-miles) border between the two countries. Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, replied immediately by giving all Colombian diplomats 72 hours to leave the country, moving troops to the border, and warning that the US and Colombia were planning to invade Venezuela.

Both men are being thoroughly disingenuous. Venezuela at least turns a blind eye to the dozens of camps that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) maintains in western Venezuela near the Colombian border, if it does not actively supply and support them. But why did Uribe wait until the last month of his eight years in office to bring this up?

Chávez's behaviour is equally perverse. He detects an impending attack and puts the Venezuelan armed forces on "maximum alert" at least once a year - last year, he even threatened to invade Honduras to reverse an alleged coup there - but normally, it's just bluster that blows away after a few days. This time, he warns that a war with Colombia would bring "a hundred years of tears", but he really seems willing to risk it.

Reconciliation

Uribe's motive is fairly trans-parent. His successor, Juan Manuel Santos, elected in May, is also a conservative politician, but he is widely seen as much more open than Uribe to a reconciliation with Venezuela. As Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva, put it, "(Santos) has given signals that he wants to build peace. Everything was going well until Uribe made this denunciation."

Very well, but then why did Hugo Chávez fall for it? He is surrounded by 'yes men', but surely there must be somebody left in his entourage who would point out to him that Uribe's last-minute accusations against Venezuela are spoiling tactics intended to undermine Santos' forthcoming peace initiative. So why didn't Chávez just maintain a dignified silence and wait until August 7, when Uribe leaves power and Santos takes over?

Partly, because Chávez is consti-tutionally incapable of maintaining a dignified silence, but also because he is more vulnerable politically at home than ever before. Venezuela is in a mess, and Chávez needs a foreign enemy fast to draw the public's attention elsewhere.

It's not all Chávez's fault. This year has brought Venezuela its worst drought in 100 years and the huge dam that supplies 73 per cent of its electricity has the lowest water level ever, so rolling power cuts black out large parts of the country daily.

The devaluation of the Venezuelan currency last January was ultimately his fault, on the other hand, and that is making even his loyal supporters among the poor really ratty. The Venezuelan army is arresting shopkeepers every day for putting up their prices, but what else are they to do when imported goods cost twice as much in bolivars as they did last year?

When Uribe made his accusation about Venezuelan support for FARC, Chávez promptly and deliberately misinterpreted it as a Colombian threat to invade Venezuela and overthrow him (allegedly with US support). The threat of war can keep people in line for years, as the Cold War amply demonstrated. It will serve Chávez's purposes admirably, so long as it doesn't slide into a real war.

If I were a Venezuelan general, I would be urging Hugo Chávez to do nothing that risks provoking a war with Colombia. Maybe Venezuelan generals really are saying that to him. But he doesn't appear to be listening.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.