Battered, bruised and broke

Dennis Morrison, Contributor

It is not by happenstance that in recent weeks this region has been hit by several powerful weather systems that have left Jamaica, Mexico and some other countries with severe damage.

From as early as May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had warned of the possibility of an extremely active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, pointing in part to record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. As August passed and we were coming to the end of September, it appeared that we might have escaped, but now there are ominous signs that more bad weather is likely.

If we accept scientific evidence of the impact of global warming on weather patterns, then we should have taken National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) projection that 2010 was on course to be the planet's hottest year ever as further evidence that NOAA's hurricane forecast would probably be realised. For sure, Jamaicans have seen marked changes in our weather patterns over the past three or more decades and, especially, since the mid-1990s when, according to NASA, the planet has seen most of the 10 hottest years since records have been kept.

Regrettably, strong action to combat global warming is still being stymied by ideological debates, particularly by United States (US) conservatives determined to disavow the link between human activity and its effect on weather conditions. China, which recently overtook the US as the leading emitter of greenhouse gases, and India which is not far behind, are also resistant to measures that would aggressively cut back on emissions within the timetable that would significantly control the rate of global warming.

The Nicole-related damage is widespread, and is the kind of 'bad luck' that we could do without, especially in this period when the economy is already contracting and stringent budgetary measures allow no room for hurricane repairs. The shortage of money to deal with infrastructure damage is nothing new, as we have experienced massive dislocation from hurricane and flooding in nearly every year since 2000. Beginning in 2001, our roads and bridges have taken a battering and there was much damage still to be repaired when Nicole struck.

Lest we forget, there were near misses from hurricanes in 2002, a direct hit by Ivan in 2004, several more near misses from hurricanes, as well as tornado activity in western parishes in 2005. After a slight breather in 2006, we were again visited by a hurricane in 2007 (Dean) and a tropical storm in 2008 (Gustav) and after escaping in 2009, we are again experiencing extreme weather. This is powerful evidence of how exposed we are to multiple hazards, and what convinced World Bank official Badrul Haque of Jamaica's especial vulnerability in this regard.

fragile economy

The recurring bill for hurricane repairs and the fallout in production have put pressure on a fragile economy and been a drag on our performance. They have caused us to miss targets for balancing the national budget and together with the huge losses of public-sector entities have added to the pressure to incur increased debt. The dislocation of agricultural production has, as well, been a destabilising factor on our inflation rate with negative on effects on interest rates and the exchange rate.

The job of the public sector as a catalyst to speed up the recovery of the economy will no doubt be harder. This is more the case in a world where aid is more deservedly being directed to other countries that have suffered catastrophic losses, as in Haiti and more recently in Pakistan. Increased lending for housing by the National Housing Trust and major road projects funded by Chinese loans will spur some activity. In a tight fiscal situation, private investment, especially from local sources, must play a more dynamic role. Recent data on the balance of payments and banking-sector loans indicate, however, that this is not happening.

Dennis Morrison is an economist. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com