The end of Sarah Palin

Here's a simple, but telling, statistical comparison. By my calculation, in her speech last week to mark the Tucson massacre, Sarah Palin spent a little over 17 per cent of her time mourning the victims, and all the rest defending herself against allegations that her fiery rhetoric had helped produce a killer.

In his speech to the memorial service, on the other hand, President Barack Obama spent about 41 per cent of his time remembering the victims, another 9.6 per cent celebrating the rescuers and aid providers, and the remaining time saying that Americans needed to honour the victims by overcoming their divisions. Significantly, he explicitly said no one person could be blamed for producing the killer.

If I had to summarise Mr. Obama's speech in a phrase, it would be something like: "In your memory, let us all do better." As for Mrs Palin's speech, it would be: "Look at me! Look at me! LOOK AT ME!"

I have never believed Sarah Palin ever had much of a chance of becoming president. Last week confirmed it. While her devoted following no doubt sucked up her defiance, Americans were exasperated with presidential narcissism by the end of the Clinton years. They warmed to Barack Obama, in part, because his soaring rhetoric helped them feel they could rise above the crassness of politics again.

The old Obama

For much of the last year or so, that aloofness was seen as a sign of disconnection, and Mr Obama's approval ratings plumbed the depths of unpopularity. But last week, many Americans were no doubt reminded of why they liked him in the first place. His approval ratings have been rising.

As for Sarah Palin, the odds of her winning the Republican presidential nomination, as measured on intrade.com, have dropped significantly. While not a highly reliable indicator, the prediction market nonetheless showed that Palin has at least not improved her standing, at a time she needed to.

That's not to say she won't get the Republican nomination next year. The former Alaska governor has a devoted following on the Republican right. The problem is, it is well to the right. If the Grand Old Party were to nominate Mrs Palin in 2012, it would be like they were telling Democrats: "We still owe you one for George McGovern."

Watching Sarah Palin work her crowds reminds me a bit of how Ricky Hatton looked to his fellow Mancunians before his fight with Floyd Mayweather. He seemed so tough, so mean, they all worked themselves into a lather, convinced he'd pulverise the champion. Then the lad stepped into the ring, and Mr Mayweather put him on the canvas before walking calmly back out into the night air.

Mrs Palin's problem is not that people will blame her for the deaths in Tucson. That will pass, as surely as anything passes from the collective memory in a land where, after all, Snooki is a cultural icon. Rather, in her response to the challenge she faced, she revealed a fatal flaw: an apparently irremediable inability to learn from her mistakes. When she humiliated herself in a notorious 2008 interview, at which time she couldn't name a single newspaper or magazine to show she read about world affairs, her handlers hoped the lesson would teach her. Apparently not. Mrs Palin still reportedly skips briefing sessions on world affairs.

If she ever steps into the ring with Mr Obama, she might enthuse her supporters with her simplicity, maybe even win a few independents by surpassing low expectations. But sooner or later, she'll have to discuss demanding topics she still refuses to brush up on - like, indeed, world affairs - and she'll need to look presidential.

She won't. Because every time she's been given the opportunity to do so, she hasn't grasped it. And if she doesn't learn soon to practise. in public, the humility she no doubt maintains in private, that will not change.

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