The Arab street rises up

For years, scholars have spoken of the Arab 'street' - the metaphor for the bottled rage of ordinary Arabs, whose vibrant civil societies are repressed by authoritarian and, all too often, United States-aligned regimes. But few foresaw a day when that street would rise up so fast, and so furious, that iron-fisted dictators would have to flee in the night.

The region was long a tinderbox. Expert observers long maintained that the effective consolidation of Arab states precluded the street being anything more than a source of inchoate rage. But, of course, the thing about tinderboxes is that when the kindling is baked dry, all it takes is a spark to set off an inferno.

Like a carelessly discarded cigarette, that spark appeared to come from nowhere. On the morning of December 17, 2010, a municipal inspector in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid literally upset the apple cart of a poor vendor, who she claimed was unlicensed. The vendor tried to pursue justice in various government offices, but was repeatedly frustrated, a not-uncommon experience in a country hitherto known for political stability, economic growth, and monumental corruption.

The ultimate sacrifice

Frustrated and desperate, the vendor went outside the regional governor's office, doused himself in paint thinner, and set himself on fire. The literal flame he started became a virtual fire of protest, as ordinary Tunisians took his rallying cry and screamed, "Enough!" By mid-January, the president of Tunisia, who had been seen as unshakeable, fled the country.

In neighbouring countries, copycat acts of self-immolation occurred, setting off similar waves of protest. What might be called the Arab model of the state, of authoritarian modernisation married to nationalism, was always predicated on a quid pro quo: leave us to rule, the governing elite effectively said, and we will deliver peace and prosperity.

To the extent it worked in countries like Tunisia, that model enabled a small elite to perpetuate its rule, even passing power from one family generation to the next. The global economic crisis of the last couple of years exposed the fragility of that model. Now, rising prices on food and basic commodities, which hurt the poor the most, are adding more fuel to the fire.

Tunisia also revealed the crisis in unfulfilled expectations. What was particularly poignant about the apple vendor who triggered the protests was that he had a college degree but couldn't find a job. The only unusual thing about him was that he was willing to set himself on fire. But Tunisia has a vast army of educated unemployed, the very sort of people who - frustrated, and with time on their hands - can organise a potent protest.

Power of the internet

The recent events also reveal the growing, unsettling, and not fully understood power of the Internet. It is significant that, by and large, the protests have been driven by young unemployed Arabs, who have few links to existing opposition movements, and have organised their protests - and reported on them - via social-networking sites like Facebook and Twitter. Caught off guard, the existing (and often ineffectual) opposition is struggling to come to terms with what is going on. Islamists, long seen as the bugbear at the gate, and the reason the Americans continue supporting such anti-democratic regimes, have been johnny-come-latelies.

In many ways, the protests across the Arab world are reminiscent of the events in the autumn of 1989, when seemingly eternal East European communist governments suddenly fell like flies. They reveal what an illusion stability can be. Regimes do not always deteriorate. They can remain strong and consolidated, until they are not.

Will another domino follow Tunisia? Will the Egyptian government fall? Will Yemen's? We will have to wait and see. What we can say, with greater confidence, is that the aprés-moi-le-deluge-islamiste fear, brandished by Arab government to justify their rule, has been exposed as flawed. There is more to Arab opposition than was imagined. And US foreign policy, which appeared to buy this line without question, has been exposed as misjudged. Washington will have to reset quickly, or find itself on the wrong side of the region's history.

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