The condition of our youth (Part 2)

Don Robotham, Contributor

Last week, we discussed some basic data on the condition of our employed youth. The point was made that our birth rate was low, and, therefore, the youth segment of our population had declined to 24.9 per cent and would decline further in the future. As pointed out then, the construction sector is the single most important sector for employed youth in the 20-29 age set and it was striking that women represented about 54 per cent of the employed part of this age set in the construction sector. In this concluding article, I want to take a look at the unemployed and not-in-the-labour-force group.

Never Worked

An important issue in considering the unemployed is the duration of unemployment. I have not been able as yet to get the data for 2009, but of the 122,961 unemployed in the 15-29 age group in 1998, 31.2 per cent had been unemployed for under six months, 24.3 per cent for between six and 11 months, and as many as 44.5 per cent (54,719 persons) were long-term unemployed. Of the long-term unemployed, 63.2 per cent had never worked. If the data have changed since 1998, it is probably for the worse.

Although we have no firm data, it is reasonable to conclude that we have at least two, possibly three, generations of families who are long-term unemployed and/or have never worked. In other words, we have a situation in Jamaica in which for significant numbers of young people, they have never worked, their fathers have never worked, and possibly also their grandfathers have never worked. We are facing a deep process of social stagnation and decay here.

In 1998, the unemployment rate for the 14-29 age group was 26.5 per cent. In 2009, the unemployment rate for the 15-29 age group was 19.8 per cent. However, if the numbers are crunched a bit differently, and one takes a smaller age group (15-24), the unemployment rate then rises to 26.8 per cent, which is the number most frequently quoted in the press. In absolute numbers, the bulk of the unemployed is in the 20-29 age group (82.7 per cent), with the 20-24 age group being particularly prominent.

Generally, the unemployment rate of young women, relative to young men, is higher by a factor of about 1.3. In 2009, female unemployment in the 20-24 age group was 24 per cent, compared to male unemployment of 19 per cent (18,100 persons compared to 17.400). However, one must be cautious in interpreting female unemployment rates, since 46 per cent of all women in the 20-24 age set (48,800) were not in the labour force. Special thought as to how to formulate policy to deal with gender disparities is a crucial part of youth policy.

Corner Youth

As pointed out last week, the single largest group in the youth population is the group outside the labour force altogether. This is not technically an unemployed group. This is the group which no longer wants or seeks employment - a group which has dropped out of the labour force altogether. Various terms are used loosely to describe this group - the 'discouraged' or the 'nonemployed' - or more locally, 'corner youth'.

This is the vital issue of declining labour force participation rates which is to be observed generally across all age groups of youth, but is principally a problem of the 15-19 age set. About 66 per cent of the not-in-the-labour force group falls into that immediate post-school category. Policy strategies to address this problem, therefore, need to be located mainly in the educational system. It raises the question of retention and the development of a longer and more effective adolescent education process.

As Professor Patricia Anderson long ago pointed out, the population 14 years and over who were classified as 'not in the labour force' increased from 478,200 to 592,700 from as early as 1991-1998. This was an increase from 45.4 per cent to 52.6 per cent of the labour force in the eight-year period. She pointed out that "the most pronounced changes in participation rates were found among persons under 25 years". In the 14-19 age set, labour force participation rates for young males declined from 34.3 per cent to 25 per cent between 1991 and 1998. For males of the age group 20-24, participation rates declined also, from 92.1 per cent to 84.6 per cent over the same period. Anderson doubts that such a large decline in the 1990s could be explained by the expansion of enrolment in the education system (especially given the data for the 20-24 age group). The trends continued at an increased pace into 2009.

In 2009, the labour force participation rate for males in the 14-19 age set was only 14.8 per cent and only 10.2 per cent for females. For males in the 20-24 age group, it was 77.4 per cent, and for females, 54.5 per cent. For the 15-29 age group as a whole, the participation rate was about 50 per cent! It should be noted that women display generally lower participation rates than men but substantially higher unemployment rates. It should also be noted that participation rates differ significantly regionally. Hopefully, the Youth Survey, when completed, will be able to shed more light on these variations.

Solutions

Given the dire condition that our youth are in, what can be done? Last week, the proposal was made for the redeployment of about 10 per cent of the Jamaica Development Infrastructure Programme budget to develop a large-scale skill-development programme for our youth. There are successful models for this: one reader kindly brought to my attention a project led by Ken Wiltshire, of the Caribbean Cement Company, to develop kiln 5 and cement mill 5.

This reader wrote: "The construction site never had the usual army of unskilled labourers milling around at the gate seeking employment every day. All who were interested in working on the project knew that they had to sign up for training with HEART Trust/NTA to receive certification at various levels as masons and other construction skills. Some 250 participants from the surrounding community signed up for training, and more than 200 were employed on the project, which lasted about three years. These people acquired not only certification that is transferable outside Jamaica, but also gained valuable experience on a major construction project that was noted, among other things, for its safety record, which the company attributed in no small part to the training that the workers received at HEART Trust/NTA."

The truly crucial point to recognise is that no significant improvement in the skills levels of our youth is possible without at the same time raising their general level of literacy and numeracy. The reason European and Asian skill levels are so high is because these advanced skills are built upon a solid general education foundation. Our youth in Jamaica have no such foundation. Any attempt to develop a short-term youth programme without addressing these fundamental educational deficits is doomed to fail. This is the experience worldwide: for example, with the so-called 'Botswana Brigades' or the Youth Polytechnics in Kenya.

What the youth need are yearlong programmes of literacy and numeracy, not some quick fix which, in fact, fixes nothing. Again, we have examples of very successful programmes of this kind right here in Jamaica, so there is no need to reinvent the wheel.

The time is ripe for the establishment of a serious private-public partnership programme to help our youth. The message from Egypt is loud and clear: the youth will not wait forever.

Professor Don Robotham is a social anthropologist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.