Uphill journey to democracy

 Dennis Morrison, Contributor

After several twists and turns and apparent last-minute resistance to let go of his iron rule, Hosni Mubarak's resignation was announced in Cairo last Friday evening to jubilant crowds in Tahrir Square. Over an 18-day period, protesters stood firm against the repressive machinery, refusing to bow to intimidation and thuggery, as they mobilised the country behind their demand for freedom, democracy, human dignity, and basic rights. But after the dictator's 30-year rule, there remains the formidable task of dismantling the Orwellian state apparatus used to bludgeon and repress the Egyptian people over these many years.

On the eve of the momentous decision, the Obama administration firmed up its position in support of Mubarak's immediate departure, after earlier appearing to vacillate in its effort, no doubt, to walk a fine line, as the outcome was highly uncertain. All along, there was no mistaking, however, that American influence on the Egyptian military was hard at work behind the scenes, and that it would be a key factor in holding back threats of bloody repression. In the end, the revolution at Tahrir Square may turn out to be a 21st-century replay of the earth-shaking and world-changing events that swept Eastern Europe after 1989.

Now begins the new phase of the mobilisation to create the framework for transition to a new political order. To ensure a peaceful and orderly transition, Egyptians will need to create political parties to channel the democratic passions of the protesters, establish a representative leadership council to frame a new constitution, hold a referendum, and eventually, free and fair elections. Despite the stifling of independent political forces under the Mubarak dictatorship, the protest movement demonstrated maturity, organisation, and tenacity, and evidence that a new political order in Egypt can retain secular character and not be overtaken by religious fanaticism.

Stability

For the West, there is some recalibration to be done in the nature of the relationship with Egypt. Over the Mubarak era, Western democratic countries valued Egypt's stability, notwithstanding that it was rooted in authoritarian rule. That stability bolstered Israel's militant stance in its dealings with Arab neighbours, and Egypt served as a convenient location for rendition under anti-terrorist programmes after 9/11.

The revolution of the Internet has exposed young Egyptians and young people everywhere to the freedoms and opportunities others enjoy, and increasingly, they are no longer willing to be denied. Under Mubarak, Egyptians felt the repression that came with stability, while they were left with high levels of illiteracy, poverty, and unemployment. This was a time bomb ticking away in the largest Arab nation that neighbouring countries observing the upheaval will find unsettling. With large youth populations in other Arab autocracies, the tide may easily move through the region if the experience of the former Soviet-led East European states is any guide.

Banner for change

In response to the peaceful nature of the protests, world financial markets have been calm, and oil markets have shown less volatility in recent days when a violent confrontation could not be ruled out. Whether conditions remain calm will depend on the nature of the engagement between the Egyptian army, which has taken over the running of the country, and the leadership to be put up by civil groups. The courage and deter-mination of young Egyptians on display in this uprising are clear indicators of their capacity to carry the banner for change.

America, which is perhaps the major outside influence and potential loser if the process is set back, should not be so anxious to retain its place that it would interfere in the transition now under way. Too often, political change in the developing world has been derailed by geopolitical machinations with horrendous consequences for local populations - Iran, Congo, Angola, Vietnam, and countries in South and Central America. Americans should not expect that Egypt is going be the spitting image of a Western, Judaeo-Christian cosmology, but it should 'walk beside' Egyptians as they strive to build a free and democratic society.

Turkey's evolving political system, built on its cultural and religious values and modern institutional framework, is an interesting example to observe. It has emerged from military dictatorship to democratic rule and is at peace with its neighbours. Egypt is no less capable of this kind of evolution internally and of continued peaceful relations with Israel. But a democratic Egypt can be expected to be much more responsive to the plight of the Palestinians.

A hard-line Israeli reaction to this dynamic could leave the Jewish state more isolated, with its relations with Turkey already strained. This and the anxieties in the Arab autocracies and oil kingdoms are dimensions of the momentous uprising in Egypt that are yet to be assessed. But it is still early days!

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