Haitian elections: the candidates

Robert Buddan, Contributor

The minimum requirement for democracy is elections. Haiti is having trouble even meeting those requirements. The country will have another go at it today. It will have a run-off presidential election between Mirlande Manigat and Michel 'Sweet Mickey' Martelly. Many other run-offs will take place between candidates for the legislature as well.

Haiti actually has more demanding conditions for one to be elected than are found in English-speaking Caribbean countries. A candidate needs to do more than simply win one vote more than his opponents. He has to win a majority of all the votes cast. If no one does, there is a run-off between the top two candidates at a later time.

The trouble in Haiti is that these many elections are costly to a poor country. There are always run-off elections. They also provide more opportunity for fraud since Haiti does not have the manpower to organise and monitor its elections properly. Haiti, therefore, has to rely too much on other countries to organise, pay for, monitor and approve its elections. And they have a stake in who wins. In the long run, one is never sure if the winning candidates are those beholden to these foreign interests or those true to the Haitian voters.

Presidential candidates

Mirlande Manigat, the female candidate, has the better political credentials. Her husband, Leslie Manigat, was briefly president in 1988 and a second-place candidate in 2006. At least Mirlande has knowledge of how the political class thinks. She is a university administrator and scholar and experienced in constitutional law. Her priorities are post-earthquake reconstruction and tackling the cholera crisis. She also wants to prioritise education and production and work with the diaspora.

Martelly is a popular former musician, hence the nickname 'Sweet Mickey'. He draws his popular base from young Haitians. In a country where an estimated 70 per cent of Haitians are 30 years old or younger and where 80 per cent are unemployed, the young are a powerful electoral constituency. Martelly's priorities include shelter for the more than 850,000 persons left homeless by last year's earthquake and still living in makeshift camps. Like Manigat, he places priority on addressing cholera, which has claimed more than 4,500 lives and affected about 250,000. But Martelly is also right when he said, "In Haiti, everything is a priority. We must increase the level of education, security, health care to the population."

Both candidates are different in gender. Manigat believes that Haitians yearn for a mother figure that would show caring in a society where life is hard and power is insensitive to the plight of sufferers. She has a somewhat greater share of female support, but not a majority. Martelly has stronger male support. The candidates differ in age too. Martelly is younger, at 50. Manigat is 70. Martelly couples this with his musical reputation to appeal to younger Haitians. He benefited when Wyclef Jean, the Haitian-American hip hop star, was disqualified to run.

The two candidates differ in style. Martelly is much more the populist and more charismatic. He is quick to appeal to the idealism and patriotism of Haitian youth by attacking foreign countries for being slow to make progress with post-earthquake recovery. He has great sympathy here. Manigat is more soft-spoken and reserved. While Martelly attacks her, she resists attacking him out of fear of alienating younger Haitians whose votes matter so much.

There is a ring of nationalism in the appeal of the two candidates. Probably Martelly comes across with a stronger nationalist appeal, but Manigat also casts her appeal on lines of Haitian pride and self-determination. If Martelly is more critical of foreigners, Manigat has been more critical of the Préval government, saying it has failed in Haiti's post-earthquake recovery.

Both candidates, however, favour the restoration of the country's military. Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who was president up to 2004, had banned the military in 1994 because of its role in

overthrowing governments, repressing the people and supporting the small elite. But the idea that the military should be restored seems popular now. It appeals to the young who feel that the United Nations military mission should end (some see it as foreign occupation and an insult to Haitian pride and independence) and Haitians should take charge of their own security. Haitians also believe that they can be more effective in securing law and order for their country and wish to join the security forces as a mark of patriotism. They also see the opportunity to get jobs in the army in a country where the state cannot afford to employ them elsewhere and the private sector is weak and usually only offers sweatshop jobs. A military job carries power and prestige and allows Haitians to work in a potentially patriotic sector.

Support Base

Though Manigat received more votes than Martelly in the first-round vote last November, polls show that Martelly has more support than she has now. Manigat, an educator, has been endorsed by many organisations within the educational sector. She has also been endorsed by important women's organisations. Haiti's minister of culture and communication has endorsed her on behalf of a leading women's organisation. The minister, a woman herself, says that Manigat's presidency would assist in the participation of women in Haiti's public affairs. She encouraged women, and voters in general, to support Manigat on the basis of her capability and experience.

Martelly has support from five former presidential candidates from the first-round elections. He also has the support of a number of popular organisations. But Martelly says he is not part of any alliance. Rather, he is for the Haitian people. In contrast, he casts Manigat as part of a scheme with the establishment - the Préval administration, big financial backers, and the security establishment - saying she is, therefore, the candidate of continuity. He is the candidate of change. Manigat says she opposes the elite and stands for change.

Both candidates are thought to be centrists, neither left nor right, although their supporters accuse each other of being one or the other. Neither has sought to court the unpopular but powerful Duvalierists nor the popular but controversial Bertrand Aristide and his party, Fanmi Lavalas. Both say they had no objection to Aristide's return to Haiti. It might be of great electoral risk should either say Aristide should not return.

Credible Democracy

Election results will be officially announced in April. Both candidates were right to say they do not simply want to win the elections; they want to be seen as a legitimate president. For this to happen, voter turnout needs to be above 40 per cent. But many do not regard the elections as legitimate or expect the turnout to be significant, and they plan to boycott it.

The counting of the votes needs to be done fairly and accurately. The November elections last year were cast into doubt, and many Haitians believe the second round should be scrapped and the first round ran over.

A credible election does not make a credible democracy. Candidates will have to prove that they are candidates of the people and not of those who pay for, organise, and validate the elections, Haiti's budgets and post-earthquake reconstruction.

Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona. Email: columns@gleanerjm.com and Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm.