Warminster electile dysfunction

Orville Taylor, Guest Columnist

"Go to hell!" Well, if the downward trend continues, that is where we are likely to meet the contentious, re-elected Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) parliamentarian Everald Warmington. Let's call a spade a shovel and admit it: St Catherine South Western is a Labourite constituency right now. Warmington trounced erstwhile People's National Party (PNP) councillor Carlos Waul, who ran as an independent candidate, by almost 3,000 votes. Polling 5,891 to 2,991 votes versus a candidate who was as viable as a stone Waul, he beat him as if he had West Indies painted across his chest.

Showing no sex bias either, he knocked out children's activist-cum-politician Betty Ann Blaine, whose 177 was simply child's play. Still not dissuaded by as many election losses as lies told at the Manatt enquiry, the ubiquitous Ras Astor Black was again in line for his customary electoral punishment. Black, with his drop-in-the-bucket 46, got the treatment which was reminiscent of that which the 1960s JLP ordered against persons of his faith and he was mauled for daring to think that he could enter mainstream politics. Unfortunately, Christopher Irons of the Marcus Garvey People's Political Party, with his 60, split the Rasta vote.

legendary misconduct

For some, especially my colleagues in Women in Media, which took exception at his maltreatment of a CVM television anchor and, later, his behind-the-scenes rebuttal of her supervisor's inquiry, it was a bad blow. Leaving an awful taste in their mouths, the JLP has not yet taken any action against him and, despite protestations by this group, kept him on the slate as the candidate.

Truthfully, the JLP might not have had much of a choice, as it would have had to find a stranger to the constituency in a ridiculously short time. Caught between the devil and the deep blue sea - and the sea is to the southernmost point of the constituency - it was a case of 'swapping black dog fi monkey', although I am not quite sure which one applies here.

Warmington's involvement in the constituency and his misconduct are both long-standing and legendary. In 1980, facing the electorate for the first time, then as a Jamaican citizen I believe, he upset the PNP's Ruddy Lawson, polling 9,727 to Lawson's 6,088. After a hiatus which saw Lawson returning to the seat in 1989, rolling over then JLP candidate Mike Williams, the 'Warbinger' returned in 1993 to meet the clenched fist of Lawson, whose 7,146 knocked the tongue out of his bell, which rang up a respectable 5,663.

With Lawson's departure, it was a woman's turn to 'give him licks', and Jennifer Edwards of the PNP took home more than 1,000 votes ahead of him. The final scoresheet was 8,267 to 7,122. In 2002, after his second of two tries against her, it went the other way, and he unseated Edwards. His 1,300-plus margin - 9,305 to her 8,091 - showed how much a constituency can swing, even when the candidate is entrenched. This lesson he is yet to learn.

The results of the 2007 election would clearly have spurred him into overconfidence and the delusion of invulnerability, as 'superman' posted the largest margin among successful JLP candidates. More than 3,000 votes separated him from the PNP's Dennis Jones. Scorecard: 10,488 to 7,244. Obviously forgetting that his constituency has swung both ways, he perhaps believes that he or the party is so entrenched that he could even substitute his embattled colleague, Garnett Reid, for himself and still gain a victory. One will note that Reid polled the lowest total of any JLP candidate in 2007 and was soundly thrashed by Portia Simpson Miller in St Andrew South, with 601 votes to Simpson Miller's 9,360.

deteriorating conduct

Since 2007, his conduct has deteriorated. After being accused by his constituents of neglecting them, just three months after his election that year, he spurned media inquiries, adding that they did not elect him. 'Cock mout' kill cock', as clearly annoyed residents expressed disgust about their representative's reprehensible behaviour. Similar comments were directed towards Citizens' Action for Free and Fair Elections over his intemperate remarks, "They did not employ me, so they cannot dismiss me." Warmington had reportedly told residents of Old Harbour Bay in St Catherine that if they did not vote for the JLP, they would not receive hurricane-relief cheques. A publicly released apology did not bear his signature. However, the always-truthful Prime Minister Bruce Golding affirmed that he had seen a signed copy.

In 2008, he struck again and declared that he does not speak with the media. So embarrassing was his conduct that the prime minister declared, "Mr Warmington is going to need considerably more speaking to." Last year, perhaps after some self-reflection, he called Contractor Greg Christie an "overzealous idiot" because Christie had questioned his misconduct in the award of government contracts.

Then late last year, he accused the press, and particularly this newspaper, of "gutterism" and having an agenda. Again, apologies were not forthcoming, but the party/Government (not sure which is which) distanced itself from his stance. The one lesson that seems to be learnt here is that Warmington is incorrigible and, like many who would be king, he should note that history is littered with the political corpses of leaders who push their heads up so high, no one can ask them anything.

Nevertheless, despite the baseless arrogance and overconfidence, Warmington might already be giving back the seat to the PNP. Waul, though not representing the PNP, and it is still unclear if he has relinquished his orange citizenship, got 2,991 votes. This represents 34 per cent of the persons who voted. There are 37,151 eligible voters in the constituency; therefore, only 24.6 per cent came out to vote. While it is true that by-elections do not generally stimulate large turnouts, the low participation is not simply a continuation of this trend. Persons are fed up with him and only a diehard core is backing him. An independent candidate in a by-election is not expected to get many votes. Imagine if it were a openly PNP-supported nominee.

wake-up call

In 2007, Warmington got almost 30 per cent of all voters eligible to vote and 56 per cent of all who voted. In this by-election, the numbers are 16 and 64 per cent, respectively. In raw numbers, he got 5,891, compared to his 2007 total of 10,488. This reduction to just over 56 per cent of his earlier total should be a wake-up call. In comparison, Daryl Vaz's 7,915 votes, to the PNP's Kenneth Rowe's 5,987, in 2009, the first of the five by-elections, was an improvement over his 2007 showing against Abe Dabdoub. There he polled 6,977.

I am no Carl Stone, and I hold no brief for Waul, but it takes more than a set of loyal followers to win an open contest. In the next general election, Warmington needs to remember that 75 per cent of potential voters did not even bother to turn out. To believe that his victory is a harbinger of other electoral success is akin to Usain Bolt standing still and backing himself in a race against Tyson Gay.

Dr Orville Taylor is a sociologist and talk-show host. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.