Great Britain's gloomy spring

Weather-wise, it's always hit-and-miss this time of year in the United Kingdom. I flew from Johannesburg as the South African summer settled into its autumn, and landed in the cold and dark dew of late winter. But last week, as I sat on a train slicing through the rolling dales of England's north country, much of this island basked in sunlight. Everyone's thoughts turned to summer, and whether families would stay or go abroad for the impending Easter holidays.

Many of them will stay home this year. They will stay in and watch movies, or perhaps do some bargain-shopping at the end-of-winter, high-street sales. Whatever the weather may be, the mood in Britain is glum this spring. The country's economy is barely moving, yet the inflation rate seems to inch inexorably upwards.

With inflation rising, the Bank of England is pondering whether to raise interest rates. Interest-rate rises are risky in a sluggish economy, but then, so, too, are petrol prices that force people to stay home. Meanwhile, the government is pressing ahead with a fiscal austerity programme which will lead to layoffs, pay cuts and spending reductions.

The impact on ordinary Britons will be harsh. Demand will drop, and asset values - especially the homes in which so many people have sunk their savings - will flatten, or even fall. In the worst case, the United Kingdom will sink back into recession. In the best, it will sputter on, with most people feeling worse off.

potentially rewarding

It may seem to be a recipe for unpopularity for any government with a weak mandate to forge ahead with belt-tightening at a time when stomachs are already pretty empty. Politically, though, while the strategy may be risky for Prime Minister David Cameron, the stakes are potentially rewarding.

Because no one party in the UK has enough parliamentary seats to form a majority government, Mr Cameron's Conservatives have formed a coalition with the centrist Liberal Democrats. While the Liberal Democrats might ordinarily oppose budget cuts, they have gone along because they want to claim their prize. Their quid pro quo for supporting the Conservatives is a referendum on a new electoral system, given that the existing system penalises third parties with nationwide representation - which is to say, the Lib Dems.

At the time the Lib Dems went into coalition, that Faustian bargain may have seemed a price worth paying to ensure that future elections would boost their seat share. But because they have had to support unpopular Tory measures, the Lib Dems have angered their support base. Were an election held today, they would do very badly. In effect, Mr Cameron has tied their fate to his: they cannot now turn their back on him, because they would be punished by the voters.

a gamble

Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party has taken a gamble of its own. By effectively saying the Tory strategy will not work, the new Labour leader, Ed Milliband, has left his future a hostage to the possibility that it might, in fact, work. On one hand, austerity in a sluggish economy may well tilt Britain back into recession. But on the other, with the Americans continuing to pump money into their sluggish economy; with the German economy recovering nicely; with China and India still strong; Britain may just, just be able to ride an export wave back to prosperity.

The government is betting that by cutting the deficit now, it can bring down interest rates, positioning the UK for a stronger recovery in a couple of years' time. That would be when Britain goes to the polls.

Britain's trading partners might feel it is a cynical strategy, since it presumes they will stimulate their economies so that Britain can ride the tide. Still, the biggest risk is that the global recovery runs into a headwind, leaving the UK exposed.

Maybe, in a couple of years' time, voters in the UK will start feeling sunnier. If they don't, Mr Cameron may opt to follow the well-worn path, of heading to sunnier climes in an early retirement to escape the anger.

John Rapley is the Bradlow fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.