Canada's (suddenly dramatic) election

Canadians queue up today to cast their votes in an election that, in its dying days, went from prosaic to dramatic.

One doesn't normally expect this of elections in a country lauded the world over for its political civility, politeness and, well, predictability. On Canadian election day, the foreign media might briefly note what happens in the Great White North, then return promptly after the break to the diet of celebrity scandal and Japanese earthquakes. Canadian elections were kind of like a lifestyle story.

But as if they're tired of being taken for granted, Canadians have suddenly given the world a real race to watch. The contest started with the minority Conservative government trying, with a cautious campaign, to pick up enough seats to finally get a slender majority. The opposition Liberals were trying to pick up enough new seats to possibly form a coalition with the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), since they seemed unlikely to get majority support. And that was about it: no major ideological struggles, no mad conspiracy theorists.

The previous stability of Canadian politics, at least at the federal level, had hitherto been founded on a basic demographic fact. Catholics tended to vote Liberal; so, too, did immigrants. In a nation of immigrants, and in which Catholics were the largest religious group, that, more or less, gave the Liberals a lock on power.

major changes

Every 10 or 20 years, Canadians might punish the Liberals for their complacency by kicking them out of office. However, Conservative governments seldom stayed in office for much longer than a full term. The drama in Canadian politics was left to unfold in the provinces, which produced everything from prairie populists to Quebec separatists (and never those twain did meet).

But in the last couple of decades, some major changes began unfolding, if quietly at first. Immigrants and their children, proud of their achievements and keen to hold on to the fruits of their success, became more conservative. And as religion grew less salient in Canadian society, the Liberal advantage among Catholics diminished. The Conservatives were able to capitalise on both these trends.

Yet at heart, Canada remains a considerably more left-wing country than its southern neighbour. After all, Canada was founded, in no small measure, by Americans who rejected the Revolution. Ask the average Canadian what defines his or her nation, and you will hear a long litany of what Canadians do better than the Americans. "You give the world Sarah Palin? We give the world Michaelle Jean." That sort of thing.

However, Canada's left-wing vote was split among three parties - the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Quebeçois, a separatist party in French-speaking Quebec. So while the Conservatives were the largest party, they could never marshal more than 40 per cent of the country's voters.

low-key approach

Ergo, the quiet strategy they adopted in this campaign. Conservative leader and prime minister, Stephen Harper, decided to employ a low-key approach, built on negative ads and attacks on the Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff. The plan was to peel away just enough centrist support to finally win a majority.

It worked. For a while. Like the earnest kid who struggles to run fast, but just doesn't have the natural skill of his rival, Mr Ignatieff panted and fell back. Harper seemed on course for the victory tape, and could look over his shoulder at the hapless loser.

What he hadn't reckoned on was that the third kid in the race, that good-natured but slow boy that nobody paid much mind to, would race out of nowhere. Mr Harper turned and found NDP leader Jack Layton closing on him.

Nobody is quite sure where this burst of speed has come from. Scholars will pick over the tea leaves of this election for some time. But the question tonight will be, might Canada see a coalition government that is led not by the Liberals, but by the NDP? Or might Stephen Harper have one last bit of sprint left in him?

John Rapley is the Bradlow fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.