Jamaica may repeat Berlin Worlds heroics

Dennis Morrison, Contributor

The odds are that by the time most persons read this article, Jamaicans could be celebrating Usain Bolt's successful defence of his 100-metre crown at the Daegu World Championships. And if our athletic stars execute well, Jamaica could reap a rich harvest of medals on the track, possibly matching the whopping count of 13 brought home from Berlin.

But many Jamaican fans will still be disappointed that Asafa Powell, the trailblazer of our current sprint dominance, could end up as the fastest man never to have captured Olympic or World Championships 100-metre gold.

It is a real pity, for one had got the impression from Powell's performances this season that this may well have been his best chance of upsetting Bolt and casting off the bogey of not rising to big occasions. Unfortunately, this gap has obscured his formidable total of 73 sub-10-second 100m runs that far surpasses Maurice Greene's 51. And it has caused some to forget his world-record runs somewhat in the way Merlene Ottey's achievements were scoffed at before she won gold medals in the 200m at successive World Champion-ships in 1993 and 1995.

Looking on, the prospects appear strong for another world-topping Games for Jamaica, although we should not expect that the feat of winning seven gold medals as happened in 2009 is easy. Before the last Games, Jamaica had never won more than one gold, and so we really took a quantum leap in Berlin. It may, however, help our cause that American male sprint talent is not so rich these days, although their female sprinters appear threatening.

Jamaican women hard to beat

But the Jamaican women should be hard to beat in the 100m, 200m, 400m hurdles; be competitive in the 400m flat race; and be favourites in the relays. Based on the signals she has sent, I am looking out for Veronica Campbell-Brown to avenge her defeat in 2009, while between Melaine Walker and Kaliese Spencer, we should pick up gold in the 400m hurdles. With luck running our way in the relays and top individual performances, the overall count could be three or four gold from the women. Put with two gold from Bolt and gold from the male sprint relay, our overall tally could be six or seven gold, which would be another extraordinary outcome for a nation of our size.

I fear that some among the recent fans may have more optimistic expectations and would feel let down if our athletes fall short. It is as if we are banking on athletic success as an antidote to our distressing economic and social conditions. Nonetheless, we should not lose sight of the intensity of the competition at the world level, and the extent to which we have overperformed relative to population size, and so on.

Greater heights

To put things in context, at the 1995 Gothenberg Championships, the fans were ecstatic as the team made what was then a record haul of seven medals, including a single gold (Ottey in the 200m). That performance put Jamaica in seventh position, ahead of a long list of heavyweights, and marked the turning point of our ascendancy in world athletics. For the next three Games, our medal count stayed at six, with no gold in 1999 and 2003, but the hard work continued and the dedicated fans remained committed.

Sustained effort thereafter was rewarded with even more bountiful treasure, with 10 medals in 2005 and then 13 in 2009, of which more than half were gold. And thus conditioned by these successes, we now anticipate even greater heights in 2011. Whether they meet our wildest medal count projections or not will depend on several variables, as is the case in all sports. But I am confident that we can count on our athletes to match strides with the best and make us proud.

Regrettably, we have not been emulating the world-class examples of Jamaica's athletes in other fields where potential is waiting to be tapped. In particular, a great deal can be learned from the track and field community about how to motivate and organise people to compete - critical ingredients in building a globally competitive workforce and economy. Let us hope that the continued success of the team will serve as a catalyst for unleashing the potential of our young people.

Dennis Morrison is an economist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.