A day in politics ...

The breaking news is that Prime Minister and JLP President Orrett Bruce Golding has indicated that he will be stepping down from both those posts around the time of the upcoming party conference. And then came the further news that the Central Executive of the JLP has voted unanimously to reject his decision.

Prime Minister Golding had offered to resign once before, but was persuaded to remain. It seems that this latest move is not a ploy à la Eddie Seaga (or Eric Williams) for people to beg him to stay. It seems that his decision is final.

The question is, is he jumping, or was he pushed? He was battered from all sides, first over his decision to challenge the extradition request for JLP strongman Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, and then over his decision to hire Manatt, Phelps & Phillips to lobby the United States government on Coke's behalf. Despite his strong pronouncements against garrison politics, which did swing some public opinion towards his administration, Dudus-Manatt lost him the confidence and trust of many.

The JLP is behind in opinion polls, and the PNP is scenting victory. It could be that even though the PNP is offering little, strategists within the governing party have concluded that Golding cannot lead the JLP to victory in 2012. Or maybe the private-sector funders of the JLP have indicated that they will not support him in the campaign for the next general election. Or maybe he has a hint of new revelations soon to come from New York.

Honourable resignation?

The first JLP press release says "the challenges of the last four years have taken their toll, and it was appropriate now to make way for new leadership to continue the programmes of economic recovery and transformation, while mobilising the party for victory in the next general elections". Mr Golding has seen his integrity challenged on all sides, and he has recently lost his mother. Whether he is jumping or was pushed, he is saying that he just can't cope with the pressure, and is throwing in the towel.

Some will feel he has done the 'honourable' thing by stepping aside, and others will say that he is protecting his legacy: no one wants history to record him as the leader of the first one-term government in Jamaica's history.

I would like to think that this is a signal that Jamaica is entering a new political era, but there is no evidence of it. Dudus and Zekes are in jail, but other political dons still rule, and there is no meaningful de-linking of garrisons from politics. The two parties will push through the law requiring declaration of the sources of their finances in secret to a committee, and so it will continue to be difficult to detect influence-peddling. If the JLP replaces Golding with a dinosaur steeped in old-style politics, nothing will change on the green side; the PNP continues to be led by a garrison MP, with other garrison MPs in the top leadership, and there is no sign of any change on the orange side.

Benefiting the JLP only

A Bruce Golding resignation could only benefit the JLP, not take Jamaica forward - away from corruption and environmental degradation, and towards sustainable development.

A new, younger JLP president and prime minister, untainted by garrison politics and untouched by the Manatt-Dudus affair, could offer a credible challenge to the populist Mrs Simpson Miller. In the euphoria of a honeymoon period, and with no concrete ideas about a new and different PNP, a general election could be called by Christmas.

The frontrunners among the younger set would be Andrew Holness and Christopher Tufton. The fact that Tufton's political origins are in Golding's NDM may work for or against him; the current impasse with the Jamaica Teachers' Association over the apparent conflict of interest in the appointment of the chairman of the Teachers' Service Commission may work against Holness.

I hope the leadership race within the JLP does not cripple the conduct of government business over the next six weeks.

But let this be a lesson for the future. Civil society in 21st-century Jamaica is determined to make life uncomfortable for politicians who appear to ally themselves with unsavoury characters. Things just could be getting better.

Peter Espeut is a sociologist and environmentalist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.