EDITORIAL - When the new leader takes over

With his address last night, Bruce Golding placed a final stamp of irreversibility on his decision to step down as leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and prime minister of Jamaica.

More pointedly, Mr Golding telegraphed to party delegates that they should not select "people like me" but, instead, pick a much younger leader, perhaps one born in the post-Independence era.

Over the next several months and years, there will be much analysis of Mr Golding's truncated premiership to determine his place in Jamaica's history. Part of that legacy will be how well he helps in guiding the transition to a new leader and the extent to which the policies initiated by his administration survive and prove to be a sound foundation upon which his successor can launch a recovery of the island's economy.

As we have been reminded, the restructuring of the country's internal debt 'saved', in the last fiscal year, nearly $43 billion, or around 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product. Inflation has moderated, the reserves have been steady, and the exchange rate stable. While it might be argued to have been a fortuitous accident from the administration's mishandling of the Christopher Coke extradition affair - one of the factors that undermined his premiership - it is a fact that the nearly 40 per cent decline in crime, including homicides, occurred during Mr Golding's watch.

But the majority of Jamaicans will argue that most of these statistics, and, in particular, the economic data, are abstractions. For nearly twice as many Jamaicans, more than 20 per cent of the population, now live below the poverty line than when Mr Golding came to office in 2007. In recent years, the economy has shed more than 100,000 jobs and unemployment is now around 12 per cent, from nine per cent at the start of the prime minister's tenure. Of course, the economy has enjoyed two quarters of mild economic uptick, after 13 consecutive quarters of decline, but faces the possibility of a renewed global recession. Recent signs of a softening in stopover tourist arrivals are worrisome.

Indiscipline in a fractious party

This is why the manner in which the JLP manages its leadership transition, as well as the posture of the new party boss and prime minister, is so important. Other stated reasons for his departure notwithstanding, it is widely held that Mr Golding felt that he could no longer maintain discipline in his notoriously fractious party.

It could be that if the leadership campaign gets out of hand and deteriorates into a knock-down, dragged-out fight, Mr Golding's successor could face similar challenges. Only, they will be magnified by the fact that the party is in government and tasked with the management of the economy, including delicate negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.

Mr Golding, therefore, must spare no effort and use any prestige and influence he has to prevent any such breakdown, while encouraging healthy debate among the leadership aspirants.

In the aftermath of the contest, among the first tasks of the new prime minister must be a genuine and robust attempt to persuade the Opposition back to the table of the social partnership talks, to seek broad consensus on economic policy and a programme of job creation. With a general election due in a year's time, it will not be easy, but the country faces no more fundamental an issue.