Who will benefit from an early election?

There have been distinctly three occasions in the history of competitive parliamentary elections that these were called within a period that could be described as 'early'.

The general election of 1962 was called by Norman Manley roughly two years before it was constitutionally due in 1964; the 1980 poll called by Michael Manley was due in 1981; and the 1993 general election by P.J. Patterson was 11 months before deadline in 1994.

Norman Manley suffered a devastating loss to the Bustamante-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), and Michael Manley suffered defeat at the hands of Eddie Seaga. The 1993 election saw the People's National Party (PNP) return to power with not only an increased number of seats (45 to 52), but a greater popular vote, moving from 83.2 per cent in 1989 to 86.4 per cent in 1993.

These political experiences ought to be helpful, though not conclusive, in judging possible political outcomes. For, indeed, the exercise of correctly reading the tea leaves in politics requires a great deal of patience, knowledge, discipline and openmindedness.

I was taken aback when it dawned on me that my support for an early election, which coincided with that of a similar call from the PNP, would have JLP tribalists branding me a Comrade. But such is life. Especially against the background that it was less than four weeks ago that Dr Winston Davidson, in an article published elswhere, threw a tantrum over Ian Boyne and me describing the Progressive Agenda as too abstract.

History of savagery

I hold firmly to the view that the people who will benefit from an early election are not only the winners in respective political parties, or the party that gets the majority of seats, but, more important, all Jamaicans.

We are not unfamiliar with the pernicious nature of political campaigns. To outsiders, the brutality associated with our electioneering seems senseless because they do not understand the connection between economic benefits and opportunities on one hand, and one's political preference on the other. But it is exactly within this context that campaign violence becomes compellingly inevitable.

Long campaign periods only serve to worsen the proclivity for savagery - physical and psychological - contributing to increased mayhem at home and further damage to our sagging image abroad. And this unflattering PR hurts both our ability to market the island to tourists and diminishes our influence at the business bargaining table.

This highly politicised and polarised society must begin to thaw. For this to happen, PNP and JLP tribalists, religious zealots, among others, must heed the advice of Albert Einstein, that famous college dropout, who said, "Problems cannot be solved at the same level of thought which existed when the problems were first created. They require a higher level of thought."

Jamaica's election campaign season has begun in earnest. With the imminent swearing in of a new prime minister, that campaign will escalate. The longer it lasts, the more deleterious it will be on our fragile and floundering economy. The recasting of the 2011-2012 Budget less than six months after it was presented and hailed by the private sector and some in the media as pro-growth, countercyclical and wonderful may not have raised red flags earlier.

But now that the impacts of the cuts in all ministries are about to be felt, we had better gird our loins for the toughest of times yet, especially against the background of the International Monetary Fund austerities.

Ironically, the call from the PNP for an early election - in light of the impending change of the leadership baton - is a call that the ruling JLP should contemplate if it wants to escape further political fallout.

Shalman Scott is a political affairs commentator. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.