Preliminary analysis of the upcoming election in the west

THERE HAS been a significant increase in the number of electors on the voters list. The number has moved from over 1.3 million to 1.6 million as of the ending of May, 2011.

The implication of this increase of over 300,000 electors is that no longer can one look at the razor-thin majorities in some constituencies and project that because candidate 'A' won by only less than 50 votes or less than 300 votes, for example, that such a candidate is bound to lose next time around.

So, for example, in western Jamaica, the two Hanover con-stituencies were won by the People's National Party's Dr D.K. Duncan in the east and Ian Hayles in the west. Duncan won by a mere 14 votes and Hayles by less than 300. But since that time, eastern Hanover now has over 2,300 electors and western over 4,700 added to the respective lists. If those sitting MPs had a hand in lawfully encouraging unregistered supporters to get their names on the voters list, then the 2007 meagre margin of victory is no longer relevant to the prospect of victory for Duncan and Hayles.

On the other hand, if it was the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) candidates who had mobilised the voter registration, then - all other factors being equal, including campaign stratagems - the JLP would not have to worry about another defeat in those constituencies.

Anxiety-filled seat

The JLP's lawyer and business-woman, Paula Kerr-Jarrett, will go against Dr D.K. Duncan in the east, while insurance executive Donovan Hamilton will be against Ian Hayles in western Hanover. Watch these two on election night, especially since the JLP Government had shown undue anxiety in wanting to call a by-election in Western Hanover.

Another seat to watch on election night in western Jamaica is southeast St Elizabeth, which was won by Frank Witter by under 600 votes. However, like other constituencies, the voters list has increased by over 2,000 votes. But, more significantly is the fact that Witter's opponent, Richard Parchment, is a sitting councillor for the Myersville Division, a PNP stronghold inside that constituency.

Contrast this situation to Senator Malahoo-Forte, a brilliant legal luminary in central Westmoreland, but a political newcomer with no seriously established political base, going up against a tested and tried political hand in the person of Roger Clarke. With the Cornwall Mountain by-election victory still fresh under Clarke's belt, Senator Malahoo-Forte - within a narrow window of time - may be a situation which could either be a march to political Golgotha or a miracle unfolding.

National swing

In St James, there are three contests that should play out in intriguing ways. In the newly created seat of central St James, veteran journalist Lloyd B. Smith of the PNP will tussle with sitting JLP councillor in that constituency, Heroy Clarke. In such a seat, which can go either way because it has just been created with no significant addition to the voters list, the party which leads in the polls and the consequent national swing will influence greatly the outcome in this particular contest. Local issues and the contrasting personality profile of each candidate will also play a part.

Clive Mullings of the JLP will contest against a new kid on the block, Sharon Ffolkes-Abrahams of the PNP, for the west central St James constituency. Both are attorneys-at-law. Although Mullings won by under 600 votes in 2007, his 2002 majority of 1,187 was cut in half and, therefore, a swing to the PNP was recorded. The question now: Will that PNP swing continue, especially against the background of approximately 5,000 new voters added to the constituency? Or has Mullings, through his own effort and that of his constituency organisation, seen to it that the trend is reversed through registration of some of that 5,000 addition to the voters list?

In south St James, another interesting battle royale is looming between incumbent MP Derrick Kellier and opponent sitting coun-cillor Homer Davies, representing the Cambridge Division in that con-stituency. Four thousand eight hundred additional voters have been placed on that list. The PNP's Derrick Kellier's margin of victory in 2007 was 247 votes. Who will be given the honour to carry the banner in south St James? More anon.