Andrew bounce and the PNP

Ian Boyne, Contributor

The Observer could hardly contain its glee. Exclaiming 'JLP ahead! Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls', the paper said in its Thursday lead story: "Andrew Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites."

The JLP had grown accustomed to trailing the PNP - and had been doing so for three years. So while it is still technically in a statistical dead heat with the Opposition, the two and a half per cent lead over the PNP is gleeful news, indeed. And remember, this is before what is expected to be an indescribably massive, adrenaline-pumping, ecstatic annual conference coming up next weekend. So for Labourites, it can only get better.

Keep in mind that just a few weeks ago, most people - including many Labourites - were confident that the JLP was looking at a one-term tenure. How have things changed in days! In July 2010, when Jamaicans were asked which party they would elect if an election were called, 33 per cent said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP. By April this year, 36 per cent said they would be voting for Portia's party, while JLP support had dropped to only 24 per cent in the latest RJR Group/Boxill polls, 32.7 per cent said they would be voting for the PNP, while the JLP's support has climbed to 35.2 per cent.

Professor Ian Boxill commented in the published poll findings: "In just six months, the JLP has managed to reverse the PNP's lead ... . It would appear that the elevation of Mr Holness to the post of PM has resulted in a significant bounce for the JLP."

JLP Fresh Prince

Last Thursday's RJR Group poll might strike some as counter-intuitive and confusing, as it revealed, surprisingly to many, that almost three-quarters of those polled (74 per cent) felt that age should not matter in choosing a leader for a political party. Only 18.3 per cent felt that it should, which shows that Holness' appeal is not just his youth, though that remains a significant factor, despite what the poll result might be saying on the surface.

In Andrew Holness' case, it is not just that he is young but that he is perceived as fresh, promising, untainted, avant-garde, bright, performance-driven, and a breath of fresh air. Holness himself has, on several occasions, played down the issue of age, always stressing a balance between age and experience. It is clearly the Andrew Holness factor which has enabled the JLP to recover so much lost ground, but that factor is not just about age. His age is a metaphor for promise - and hope for a break with the past and with a generation that has failed abysmally.

How the PNP will be able to pull back this Fresh Prince from his glory is to be seen. I hope Peter Phillips does not believe his own propaganda that the JLP is ahead in the polls because of "the curiosity factor" of Andrew Holness. If it's curiosity, it's a curiosity that can kill the PNP cat! The PNP must not underestimate the enormity of the Andrew Holness challenge. A major part of Portia's appeal has been her strong working-class credentials, her identification with the poor and marginalised, and her charm.

But here is a prime minister who spent his early years in a board house in Cumberland, grew up in a typical Jamaican home without mother and father, and who did not go to one of the elite schools of Kingston. He's charming, he's handsome, he has a captivating smile, he's likeable, affable, good-natured, etc. These personality factors are important to the electorate. People don't just vote on issues and answers. There are many emotional factors which influence people's vote, and Holness has a lot of them.

The PNP, since Holness' ascendancy to the throne, has been remarkably inept and stunningly slow in crafting a coherent line of offence against his leadership. I have always credited the PNP as being masters of strategic communications, image management and public relations; and being far more savvy on these matters than the JLP. But in the last few weeks, I am wondering what is happening to the PNP. They seemed to have all but conceded victory to Andrew Holness' JLP.

The PNP has to realise that this is not the Golding JLP which they are dealing with. Golding gave too little attention to public relations and strategic communications, and he has paid dearly for it. Andrew Holness lives and breathes PR. How he has skilfully dominated the media over the past few weeks, strategically inserting himself in critical platforms, strategically staging high-publicity events, shows all the marks of a master at public relations. He is 'out-PNP-ing' the PNP - and the PNP seems not to have a clue as to how to respond, as though they are still in shock.

And it seems clear that Andrew has every intention of taking advantage of the PNP in this comatose stage. For, before they wake up with the sound of the bell, it will be election time. Holness is much too smart to believe that he has time to play around with. It's now or never for him. With the excitement and euphoria of Christmas in the air, this is the time to tug at people's hearts. The time of hope, cheer, goodwill, pleasantries and promise is the ideal time to ask people to believe in ringing in the new. The psychological and non-rational factors must never be underestimated.

No easy alternative

The problem the PNP has is that in this globalised environment, with Jamaica under debt peonage and the tutelage of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there is no easily saleable alternative. The one line of attack which the PNP has been attempting over the past few weeks is to try to focus national attention on the Government's troubled or, at least, unsettled relationship with the IMF. The PNP has been getting some traction with its scary stories about what lies on the horizon with the IMF.

The PNP has been making a case that a major reason why the JLP is likely to rush to have an early election is that much pain and agony is coming early next year and the JLP wants to hoodwink the people before they see what's coming. The 'hataclaps' and IMF apocalypse are coming right after election. And it is certain those hard times are, indeed, coming and that some very tough decisions will have to be taken, resulting in suffering for the Jamaican masses.

But the problem for the PNP is this: No matter who wins the election this year or next year, our real masters are the IMF and they will be imposing their harsh rule no less if the PNP is in power. So it's not a matter of not electing the JLP because hard times are coming if they win. The bald, uncomfortable, forbidding truth is that whichever party wins, the harsh, bitter, unstomachable IMF medicine is coming. The only alternative platform the PNP could fight on is to say that they would resist the harsher measures of the IMF and protect the poor; that they would, through their progressive policy stance, not accept from the IMF certain austerity measures. But the PNP cannot take that line, for as is clear from its misnamed Progressive Agenda, its polices are essentially the same neoliberal ones of the JLP. The PNP, ideologically, is not different from the JLP.

The PNP has been arguing essentially about who are better managers of a capitalist economy. They maintain that Shaw and his team have not been very good and that they would do a much better job. Despite their own propaganda line that Andrew is driving the same old bus, the fact is that they are waiting to drive that same bus, with their promise that they have a better team of drivers, 'ductors' and 'loaders'. It's the same old bus (or jeep) going in the same old neoliberal direction.

JLP awash with money

Andrew Holness has already staked his claim as a fiscal conservative, someone at home with IMF economic philosophy. He has signalled to international partners that he will be faithful to the neoliberal catechism and that he will not veer off into economic heresy. The international financial community loves that kind of talk and our local private sector and potential party backers love it even more. The JLP will be awash with money this election.

The Gleaner has already been mounting its own front-page campaign for fiscal conservatism, austerity and Washington Consensus policies. The PNP could never dare take a different direction from The Gleaner at this time. That would be certain death politically. Yet, without an alternative to the neoliberal Prince Andrew, what scary stories can they tell Jamaicans to frighten them into not electing this young man who seems to show so much promise?

The PNP dare not stand with the social classes set to suffer under IMF austerity policies. Teachers and others fighting pension reforms are on their own. So the PNP is in a real dilemma in terms of crafting its election propaganda strategy. It will be severely tempted to simply engage in wild rumours; gossip and character assassination (remember I said, tempted). For it can't come with ideology, and now with a largely new, fresh JLP team it can't say "the JLP has failed us", for it's a new and different JLP.

The line that Holness was a part of a Cabinet which did this and that awful thing is not likely to wash with voters. Voters are likely to lay Golding's and Shaw's alleged sins on their own shoulders, not on young, likeable charming Prince Andrew. Attempts to tie Andrew with garrison and 'dutty politics' will have limited value. Saying he was part of "that same old corrupt, deceptive, lying Golding administration which sought for many months to protect a convicted mobster", etc., etc. is not likely to wash.

The Gleaner, Nationwide and others are calling for debates on issues. The fact is that, substantially, the PNP and the JLP are reading from the same hymnbook. One might be a little more melodic, or have a better variation on the theme. But substantial difference? "Faget it!"

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and ianboyne1@yahoo.com.