Clash of political titans in Manchester

by Shalman Scott, Guest columnist

THE IMMINENT clash between Peter Bunting of the opposition People's National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) Danville Walker in the constituency of Manchester Central has already begun to attract national attention and stimulate much discussion.

Given the antecedents of both men and the success they have had in their personal and professional lives, it is not surprising that such would be the case. However, while personality has a place in political outcomes, it is context that is most catalytic in that determination. Political context involves the history of voting behaviour, including the distribution of core support among the political parties; the performance of the incumbent member of parliament (MP); the relationship of the MP with the constituents, bearing in mind that relationship and performance do not always coterminate.

Other factors are the quantity of new voters added to the electoral roll since the last general election, the trend line of political swings between elections - both parliamentary and local government. Using 1989, when the PNP returned to power after a crushing defeat of the JLP in parliamentary election, as a base year, Manchester Central has successfully remained in the PNP column throughout the five general elections held in that constituency.

John Junor won four consecutive times - from 1989 to 2002 - then handed over the seat to Peter Bunting, who defeated the JLP's Sally Porteous in a nail-biting finish of only 115 votes in 2007. Interestingly enough, as at the upcoming election, which will be the sixth since 1989, the JLP will have changed its candidates six times. Cecil Charlton, Oswald Harding, Frank Genus, Norman Horne and Sally Porteous, all have fallen casualty to the PNP political machinery.

With Walker's arrival and demonstration of his readiness for combat, we will see if the possibility of a PNP six-love will be averted. Perhaps Walker, a man whose reputation for paying attention to details precedes him, might not be awed by that history.

And in the parish council elections that immediately followed in 2003, the PNP lost three of the four divisions it previously held. These were Royal Flat, Knockpatrick and Mandeville, which all fell to the JLP. Junor announced his resignation from representational politics not long after.

Meagre margin

To critically understand the contextual dynamics of Manchester Central is to know that over those five PNP victories since 1989, the PNP's share of the votes over the period has moved from a high of 56 per cent to 50 per cent in 2007, a six percentage swing to the JLP. It is in this light that the meagre margin of Bunting's 115-vote majority over Porteous in the last parliamentary contest must be seen.

Further, although there were close to 1,000 new voters on the list for 2007, Bunting polled 8,453 (50.2 per cent), compared to Junor's take of 8,307 in the previous election, a total of 146 votes more! There is, however, a new elephant in the room, and that is the close to 5,000 new electors on the voters' list for the next poll. Who had a greater hand in this effort - the PNP's Bunting or the JLP's Porteous? Can Danville Walker break the six-love PNP trajectory by advancing the JLP swing even further?

Manchester North Western is a seat that is not often talked about. It's time to take a serious look at what is developing inside that constituency and pay some attention to a man named Timothy Scarlett of the Jamaica Labour Party. In the 2007 general election, Scarlett went up against the PNP's Dean Peart, who defeated Scarlett by a majority of 937 votes.

Peart polled 6,481 (53.6 per cent) to Scarlett's 5,544. But this defeat was a reduction in Peart's majority of 2,712 in the previous election of 2002, representing a swing of eight per cent to the JLP! Peart announced his resignation from representational politics some time after. He served for five consecutive terms.

Scarlett went on to win the Mile Gully division and is a sitting JLP councillor and also the caretaker/candidate for the next election. His PNP opponent is young Mikael Phillips, who put on display his political acuity against Joseph Hibbert in East Rural St Andrew in 2007. Close to 3,500 new voters have been added to the list of Manchester North West. This constituency will hold no less excitement to Manchester Central on election night.

Shalman Scott is a political analyst. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.